Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 3

Rugby’s greatest rivalry resumes when the Springboks tackle the All Blacks in a Rugby Championship blockbuster at Ellis Park on Saturday, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The two powerhouses will battle it out on South African soil in successive showdowns over the next fortnight, with the rematch set to go down in Cape Town next weekend.

Meanwhile, the Pumas are back home where they’ll host the winless Wallabies at La Plata on Sunday followed by the sequel in Santa Fe next weekend.

South Africa v New Zealand

Saturday, 31 August – 17:00

In their first meeting since the Boks’ nail-biting 12-11 triumph in last year’s World Cup final in France, the men in Green and Gold are aiming for a third successive victory over their arch-rivals for the first time since 2009.

There’s such a great history between the sport’s two biggest powerhouses. They’ve clashed 106 times since 1921, with the Boks winning 40 games and losing 62, with four draws. It might not sound all that impressive, but South Africa’s by far the most successful nation against the mighty New Zealanders.

That said, there were fears the rivalry could be over when the All Blacks won six in a row, including condemning the Boks to record defeats (57-17 in 2016 and 57-0 in 2017). Fortunately, the arrival of Rassie Erasmus as Bok coach in 2018 has breathed new life into the feud. Nothing separates the sides since then with both banking five wins whilst there’s been one draw, setting the stage for a titanic two-match series.

It’s only fitting that the first clash is at Ellis Park, where the Boks famously beat the Kiwis 15-12 in the 1995 World Cup final. It’s South African rugby’s great cathedral, however, it hasn’t been the Fortress it’s traditionally been when it comes to this rivalry as the All Blacks have won four of the last five meetings at the venue.

It’s been nearly a decade since the Boks last beat New Zealand on the hallowed Johannesburg turf, that being a 27-25 triumph in October 2014. Since then, the visitors have gone back-to-back with a 27-20 win in 2015 and a 35-23 victory in 2022.

The Boks have been perfect out of the blocks in this year’s Rugby Championship, claiming a full house of 10 log points from their two matches Down Under, and are favourites to see off the All Blacks and go on to claim the title. The favourites tag is not one the Boks wear well, but given the recent history at Ellis Park, they’ll have an underdog-like hunger to get over the line in this one.

Under pressure after their shock opening-round loss to the Pumas in Wellington, the All Blacks produced the requisite response in the rematch to canter to a 42-10 win and make it 50 wins on the trot at Eden Park.

The six-try rout in torrential rain was the Kiwis’ best performance yet under Scott Robertson and was just the confidence booster they needed ahead of their tour to South Africa. They showed the power and precision they lacked seven days earlier and what they’ll need if they want to possibly get one over the world’s No. 1 team on Saturday.

They also showed they’re not exclusively entertainers and can execute a territory-based kicking game. That, however, is when they’re not under immense pressure. Their pack would’ve been buoyed by their dominant display, but again, they’ll know they’re set to battle a different beast altogether at Ellis Park.

Following the shock departure of Leon McDonald from his post of assistant coach last Thursday, the All Blacks can be seen as vulnerable, but it also makes them more unpredictable than usual, with no one exactly sure what to expect from Robertson’s charges from an attacking point of view.

What the Boks are concerned, while good in Australia, they’ll lift their intensity and physicality back to the level of their 27-20 win over Ireland in July. With power in spades, an evolving attack, unrivalled depth and a desire to keep making history, Siya Kolisi and company should come out on top.

Prediction: South Africa by 5.

Suggested Bet: New Zealand +7.5 at 1.83.

Argentina v Australia

Sunday, 1 September – 00:00

Argentina will pay little mind to their 32-point pummeling at Eden Park last time out. Their 38-30 triumph in Wellington in the opening round is the result they’ll hang their hat on.

They’ve always struggled to double up after a good performance, so don’t read too much into the effort they put forth in Auckland. Instead, expect them to put their best foot forward against the embattled Australians.

Such is the sorry state of Australian rugby that they’re heavy underdogs against the Pumas and rightfully so. Blown away by the Boks’ ‘A’ and ‘B’ teams on home soil, the Wallabies have problems aplenty and will be fuelled by desperation.

That they only managed one try in the two Tests against South Africa was as much of an indictment of their blunt attack as it was a feather in the cap of the world champions’ defence.

They’ll have more confidence running at the Pumas but need some variation and creativity to cause their hosts problems. They also need to ramp up their intensity and output in the effort areas and tighten up their defence.

That said, the Argentinians will be up for this one and with their superior strength, skill and set pieces, they should add to the Wallabies’ woes.

Prediction: Argentina by 7.

Suggested Bet: Australia +7.5 at 1.83.