Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 1

The Springboks will look to kick their Brisbane bogey when they battle the Wallabies in the opening clash of the Rugby Championship this weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The road to Southern Hemisphere supremacy starts in Australasia on Saturday with world champions South Africa keen to come good Down Under over the next two weeks, while New Zealand aim to start strong against Argentina.

The outright odds are very interesting with the Boks tipped to win the title and the Wallabies projected to prop up the table. With the Boks set to host the All Blacks in back-to-back blockbusters in the middle rounds before concluding their campaign with successive showdowns against Argentina (the first on the road and the second at home), they are the favourites to win the tournament for a change at 1.66 outright.

Perennial favourites and defending champions New Zealand have odds of 2.35, with Argentina (21.00) carrying better odds than Australia (29.00), although, both are rank outsiders.

Australia v South Africa

Saturday, 10 August – 6:30

The tournament opener is a highly intriguing contest. As a vastly experienced and settled side, the bulk of whom are double World Cup winners, the Boks should do the double over a Wallabies side featuring plenty of fresh faces and starting a new era under Joe Schmidt. 

They’re heavy favourites to kick off the competition with a win and yet, if history has taught us anything, it’s that you can never be sure of a Bok win Down Under. For whatever reason, the men in Green and Gold struggle in kangaroo country, especially in Brisbane, where they’ve lost 11 of the 12 Tests against the Wallabies in the professional era.

Rugby Rewind: Boks’ Wins Over Wallabies Down Under

Rassie Erasmus is well aware of South Africa’s struggles in Australia and has thus taken a different approach by making the trip with his troops last Wednesday. With adequate time to acclimate and prepare, the Boks should be ready to go, but there’s still a degree of uncertainty, which could see some money coming in on the Wallabies.

Part of that uncertainty is the fact that the Boks don’t know quite what to expect from the Wallabies. They’ve kicked off the Schmidt era with a satisfactory series win over Wales and a 40-29 victory over Georgia. Building blocks have been laid, but the foundation will be tested by the Boks.

What is clear is that the Wallabies don’t have the muscle to beat up the Boks like Ireland did in Durban to square the series between the world’s top two teams. Add the fast field in Brisbane and Australia will likely look to run the Boks ragged. That energy-sapping strategy has worked in the past, but with the Boks now essentially having a second pack on the bench in the form of the Bomb Squad, the Wallabies have their work cut out for them.

As much as my initial thought is to be conservative given South Africa’s poor record Down Under, this Bok side have their basis covered and a point to prove and I see them doing just that with a comfortable win.

Prediction: South Africa by 14.

Suggested Bet: South Africa -8.5 at 1.83.

New Zealand v Argentina

Saturday, 10 August – 9:05

The action moves to Wellington, where the Pumas have little chance of causing an upset. Both teams have new coaches and are in the early stages of forging a fresh way forward, but in terms of results, you could say the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Argentina are yet to begin a Rugby Championship campaign with a win and have won just one of the 17 matches against the All Blacks in New Zealand, a 25-18 triumph two years ago. In the meetings in the Land of the Long White Cloud, the Kiwis have an average winning margin of 34.8 points.

The two-Test series against England was a great way for the Scott Robertson era to kick off as it tested not just the skill but the resolve of the side as well. In sweeping the series with two close wins, they would’ve grown as a group and won’t take the Pumas lightly.

Argentina couldn’t get out of the blocks in their first test under Felipe Contepomi, losing 28-13 to a young French side, but was much improved in the second Test to square the series with a 33-25 win and smashed Uruguay 79-5 to build some more confidence.  

However, they’ll struggle to be competitive against the Kiwis, who should cruise to a commanding win.

Prediction: New Zealand by 19.

Suggested Bet: New Zealand -15.5 at 1.84.