Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 6

It’s all to play for as the Springboks and Pumas run it back with the Rugby Championship title on the line in Nelspruit on Saturday, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The first order of business on Saturday takes place in Wellington, where the All Blacks and Wallabies will want to end their disappointing campaigns on a winning note.

New Zealand v Australia

Saturday, 28 September – 9:05

After exploding out of the blocks and racing into a 21-0 lead in Sydney last weekend, the All Blacks once again dropped off in a major way in the final quarter and narrowly held on for a 31-28 win to retain the Bledisloe Cup for another year.

Similar to what was the case in their winless two-match tour in South Africa, New Zealand showed promise of old for 60 minutes but couldn’t sustain their energy and intensity for the full 80.

Yes, they don’t have the depth of previous All Blacks teams, but there’s no excuse for the way they consistently lose the plot in the discipline department, with two late yellow cards nearly costing them the game against a very average Australian side, to put it mildly.

As for the Wallabies, who’ll walk away with the wooden spoon regardless of Saturday’s result, they showed a lot more heart than they did in their record 67-27 loss to the Pumas in Santa Fe in the previous round to fight back and give themselves a late sniff. However, when it was 15 on 15, it was clear the Kiwis were the better team.  

Wellington has been a local graveyard for the All Blacks in recent years, the opening round 38-30 loss to Argentina taking their rotten run without a win there to five. Thus, the Wallabies will feel there’s an opportunity to steal a win if they can get off to a better start. They’ll also want to eliminate the turnovers that proved so costly last weekend.

Simply put, though, the All Blacks are a much better team than their old enemies and should win more comfortably this time around.

Prediction: New Zealand by 15.

Suggested Bet: Australia +18.5 at 1.83.

South Africa v Argentina

Saturday, 28 September – 17:00

The Boks will be in a menacing mood after losing their world No. 1 ranking and having their unbeaten run in this year’s Rugby Championship snapped in Santiago del Estero last weekend.

For as clinical as they were to establish an early 17-point lead, they surrendered momentum to the Pumas and couldn’t get out of second gear in the second half. Still, it was a game they should have won with Manie Libbok missing an easy late penalty kick.

With their famous 29-28 win, the Pumas have now beaten the Boks, All Blacks and Wallabies in the same campaign for the first time and have given themselves a shot at a maiden Rugby Championship title. The Boks need just a single log point, though, so it’s highly unlikely that the Argentinians will lift the trophy.

Bringing the big guns back should eliminate the mistakes from their game that they made last weekend, such as missing first-time tackles and misfiring in the lineouts and will make South Africa the fresher side.

There have been a lot of positives when it comes to the Boks’ play this season, from evolving their attack to the strong defence that only saw them concede five tries in the first four games against the Wallabies and All Blacks. However, the one remaining issue is that they’ve been unable to produce an 80-minute performance. That will be their main goal on Saturday.

The Pumas normally struggle with consistency, but they have now put together two big back-to-back wins and with a chance to clinch a first-ever Southern Hemisphere title, they’ll be up for the battle in Nelspruit.

They’re incredibly dangerous with ball in hand and highly efficient in punishing teams for their mistakes, but they’ll have a much harder time in the gain line battle and will struggle again at scrum time.

Hurting from last weekend, the Boks will be out to make a statement, and they’ll do so with a show of force to emphatically gain revenge and claim their first Rugby Championship title since 2019.

Prediction: South Africa by 20.

Suggested Bet: South Africa -18.5 at 1.84.