Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 5

The Springboks will look to clinch the Rugby Championship crown when they collide with title rivals Argentina in Santiago del Estero on Saturday, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Unbeaten in this year’s tournament, the Boks – on 18 points – need just three more log points from their next two matches against the second-placed Pumas – who are on 10 points – to seal the title for the first time since 2019.

The action kicks off bright and early on Saturday morning when the embattled Wallabies, rooted to the bottom of the log on four points, seek redemption against the third-placed All Blacks – who are on seven points – in Sydney.  

With both of these teams out of the title picture, their full focus will be on the Bledisloe Cup, which New Zealand have held since 2003.

Australia v New Zealand

Saturday, 21 September – 7:45

To what extent can the woeful Wallabies lift themselves after hitting rock bottom in the previous round? A week after breaking their tournament duck with a surprise 20-19 win over Argentina, they surrendered a 17-point lead and crashed to a record 67-27 defeat in the rematch.

The All Blacks have also only managed one win, a 42-10 triumph over the Pumas in the second round, but gave good accounts of themselves in the narrow back-to-back losses to the Boks in South Africa. With both teams determined to get back in the win column, they’ll be fuelled by desperation.

The Wallabies are traditionally up for Bledisloe Cup clashes, but in saying that, they just can’t seem to grab the cherished silverware out of the All-Blacks’ stranglehold. The last time Australia held the Bledisloe Cup, all the way back in 2002, was the year Wallace Sititi, the youngest member of the All-Blacks squad, was born.

New Zealand have lost only one of their last 12 Tests against Australia (W10 D1) and have won their last seven meetings by an average margin of 17.4 points per game. The last time they recorded a longer winning run against the Wallabies was a 10-match span from August 2008 to September 2010.

They’ve also lost only one of their last 10 Tests against Australia in Sydney (W8 D1) and have won their last four meetings in the city, scoring 44.3 points per game across those four wins. The last and only time they recorded a longer winning run against the Wallabies in such fixtures was a 10-match span from July 1938 to June 1974.

The All Blacks would’ve been encouraged by their performances against the Boks despite not getting the desired results and with no Bomb Squad to worry about, they’ll cruise to a commanding win.

Suggested Bet: New Zealand by 18.

Value Bet: New Zealand -13.5 at 1.83.

Argentina v South Africa

Saturday, 21 September – 23:00

As good as the unbeaten Boks have been this tournament, the Pumas will fancy their chances after their record-breaking win over the Wallabies last time out.

Having beaten the All Blacks 38-30 in Wellington in the opening round, they have an opportunity to beat the traditional big three for the first time in a single campaign and keep their hopes of a maiden title alive.

Both sides will seek to get off to a better start. The Boks had to come from behind in both of their home wins over the All Blacks, while the Pumas trailed 20-3 on the half-hour mark before producing one of the biggest turnarounds of all time against the shell-shocked Australians in Santa Fe.

The Boks still seem to be in two minds when it comes to their attack. In both Tests against the All Blacks, they started by chancing their arm with offloads and wide attacks – the Tony Brown influence – only to revert to their tried-and-true power game to dig themselves out of trouble. This will likely continue this weekend.

Either way, the breakdown has been the Boks’ biggest weakness and will be an area Argentina targets. The Pumas have a superb back row and will pile on the pressure in the hopes of picking off the Boks like the Kiwis did or frustrate and slow them down at the very least. The Boks will also want to turn their scrum back into a weapon as they’ve under-delivered in this set piece this campaign.

The Pumas have been potent with ball in hand, proving they can score from anywhere, so the Boks will have to have their heads on a swivel. This matchup pits the competition’s best attack against the best defence with the Pumas having scored the most tries (15) and the Boks having conceded the fewest (5).

The Pumas aren’t all flash and no substance and the hostile environment the Boks will find themselves in will make it that much more of a challenge. However, it’s a test the men in green and gold should pass to seal just their fifth Southern Hemisphere crown.

Suggested Bet: South Africa by 10.

Value Bet: Argentina +10.5 at 1.84.