Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 4

The Springboks and Pumas will seek revenge and redemption respectively in the fourth round of the Rugby Championship this weekend. 

The world champions kick off Saturday’s doubleheader in Brisbane with a burning desire to set the record straight against Australia following their 28-26 loss, while Argentina will aim to restore pride in the blue and white jersey after being blanked by the All Blacks.

Australia v South Africa

Saturday 18 September – 09:05

Beware the wounded Springbok. Siya Kolisi and company were their own worst enemies on the Gold Coast, with indiscipline and shocking goal-kicking contributing to their downfall. To their credit, the Wallabies were wily and looked a different team with Quade Cooper back in the saddle. 

The mercurial flyhalf married class and composure as he injected momentum and magic into the backline and produced a goal-kicking masterclass to inspire his troops to a thrilling upset in his first Test in over four years. Essentially, the stars aligned for the Australians and everything that could go wrong for South Africa did, yet it still came down to a last-gasp penalty goal. 

The Wallabies’ win was somewhat fortuitous rather than a fluke, but repeating the feat will be twice as tough as the cat’s out of the bag as far as their special weapon is concerned. The Australians’ successful ambush was partly built on the blockers they had in place to stifle the Springboks’ kick-chase game. Makazole Mapimpi tried in vain to alert the officials of the tactic, but it will certainly be brought to the attention of this weekend’s officials well before kick-off, so that’s one trick the Wallabies should be without. 

As bitter a pill as the loss was to swallow, Jacques Nienaber will take heart from knowing that remedying the result in the rematch doesn’t require a rethink of strategy but simply better execution. Off the tee alone, greater accuracy would’ve seen his charges secure the expected win, and there’s no way a consummate professional like Handre Pollard has a second shocker in a row. 

If last Sunday’s result showed punters anything, it’s that the Springboks’ hoodoo Down Under can’t be discounted. Brisbane is at the heart of that agony, with the men in green and gold having won just one of the 13 Tests played there since 1993. That said, expect a far more clinical Springbok side to bounce back and seal a narrow win. 

Prediction: South Africa by six.

Suggested Bet: Australia -7.5 at 1.83.

Value Bet: South Africa by 1-12 at 2.50.

Argentina v New Zealand

Saturday 18 September – 12:05

Boy did things go from bad to worse for the Pumas last Sunday. The 39-0 shutout made the back-to-back losses they suffered in South Africa look half decent in comparison. After a strong start and trailing just 7-0 after 34 minutes, the wheels came off for an Argentinian team that were defeated well before referee Nic Berry mercifully blew the final whistle.  

That’s what’s been the most disappointing about the Pumas this season. They’re listless…lacking the heart that allowed so many former generations to be competitive despite giving up considerable star power and intellectual property to the powerhouse trio of the Southern Hemisphere. 

More than a much-needed lift in their standard of play is a serious need for introspection; digging deep to rediscover who they are and who they represent. As one of all-time great Pumas, coach Mario Ledesma’s the ideal man to light that fire in each of his players.

Tactically, they have to stop feeding the monster. If you give the All Blacks 63% of the ball, you can’t be surprised when they blow you out of the water. For their part, the Kiwis were clinical and ruthless on attack and flawless on defence. 

The thing about hitting rock bottom is that things can only get better and it should, at the very least, be a closer scoreline this time around. 

Ian Foster will probably rest a few players with an eye on the massive 100th clash against the Springboks next weekend, which will restrict the bleeding. The Pumas will still be outgunned, but to a lesser extent, and should go about things smarter and more passionately, all of which should keep the margin under 30 points. 

Prediction: New Zealand by 28.

Suggested Bet: New Zealand -26.5 at 1.84.

Value Bet: New Zealand -12.5 on the first half handicap at 1.87.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.