Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 4

The Springboks will be out to make more history in their Rugby Championship rematch with the All Blacks in Cape Town on Saturday, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The men in Green and Gold completed a hat-trick of wins over New Zealand with their 31-27 triumph at Ellis Park last weekend and are looking to make it four wins on the trot over their arch-rivals for the first time in the professional era.

Meanwhile, the Pumas will have revenge on their mind when they square off against the Wallabies in Santa Fe in the evening game.

South Africa v New Zealand

Saturday, 7 September – 17:00

For as much as the Boks deserve a ton of credit for staying composed and pulling off the come-from-behind victory last weekend, the All Blacks will feel they let a famous win slip.

After splitting their games against Argentina to start their campaign, the Kiwis entered the Ellis Park encounter as heavy underdogs and despite falling short, they proved yet again that they can never be counted out as they dominated most of the match and will fancy their chances in Cape Town, where they have a pocket of local supporters.

The Boks have a dreadful record against their arch-rivals in the Mother City, winning just one of the five meetings in the professional era. With them having all been played at Newlands, South Africa will see this first-ever fixture between the sides at Cape Town Stadium as a new beginning.

It’s also an opportunity for them to effectively clinch the Rugby Championship and recapture the Freedom Cup, which the All Blacks have held since 2010. 

The Boks will want to get off to a better start and cut out the inaccuracies and unforced errors that hamstrung them for such a large portion of last weekend’s clash. It’ll also serve them well to vary their attacks from lineouts after going to Siya Kolisi in midfield became predictable and led to an intercept try.

That the Boks won despite not being at their best is the mark of a champion side, but so is moving on swiftly and producing an improved performance. That is achieved by sticking to the process and executing the plan step by step, which is what I’m expecting from Rassie Erasmus’ charges. 

The All Blacks, while in the infancy of their new era under Scott Robertson, showed they remain masters of punishing opponents for their mistakes. Their ruck speed also caused the Boks problems, and they fronted up well physically.

As much as they’ll be determined to duplicate the physicality of the first meeting, they’ll focus on improving their discipline as that is what ultimately did them in at Ellis Park as they conceded seven penalties in each half and a costly yellow card. They’ll also want to exit better.

Last weekend’s performance was as good as it’s going to get for New Zealand for a while and they still fell short. They also picked up more injuries in the brutal clash than the Boks, the big one being to industrious flank Ethan Blackadder, who’s replaced by rookie Wallace Sititi.

That Kolisi has been cleared after suffering a hard knock to the cheek last weekend is a major boost for the Boks, who’s at their best with their talismanic captain leading from the front. That Erasmus has gone with a traditional five-three split bench is a bit of a let off for the Kiwis, but even so, they can’t match the class coming off the Bok bench.

It should be another close contest, but like in the first meeting, the All Blacks won’t quite be able to hang with the Boks for the full 80 minutes.

Prediction: South Africa by 7.

Suggested Bet: South Africa -5.5 at 1.84.

Argentina v Australia

Saturday, 7 September – 21:00

After being denied at the death in La Plata last weekend, the Pumas will want to make better use of their opportunities and leave nothing to chance this time around.

Favourites going into the clash, they started well but it was the Wallabies who did the basics marginally better in the torrid conditions to break their Rugby Championship duck with a 20-19 win thanks to a last-gasp Ben Donaldson penalty goal.

Credit has to go to the embattled Australians for the way they fought back from an early 10-point deficit. For a young team under a new coach, the ability they showed to stay calm in the storm was a major character-building triumph.

The torrential rain proved to be an ally for the Aussies and their pragmatic approach and with clear skies predicted for the sequel, it remains to be seen how their defence will hold up with the Pumas able to spread the ball more freely.

The visitors had an edge in the set pieces, particularly at scrum time, and will look to build on that, whereas the Pumas would’ve been in talks with the officials in the week to get greater clarity on the engagements after a few controversial calls went against them.

Key to the Wallabies’ success was their work at the breakdown. Again, some calls were questionable, but the end result was six turnovers to the hosts’ one. The Pumas have a quality back row, but they were off the pace last weekend and need to step up if the Argentinians are going to turn the tables. 

There’s value in another Wallaby upset, however, the Pumas will be able to fire more shots in more favourable conditions and will be wiser to the visitors’ tricks, which should see them bounce back.

Prediction: Argentina by 4.

Suggested Bet: Australia +4.5 at 1.83.