Investec Champions Cup Predictions – Round 4

Seven sides have already punched their ticket to the Round of 16 – Bordeaux-Begles, Toulouse and the Leicester Tigers in Pool 1, Pool 2 leaders Leinster, Pool 3 pacesetters the Northampton Saints and Pool 4’s top two teams, Toulon and the Glasgow Warriors.

South Africa’s coastal sides are among the teams fighting for the nine remaining spots and have to do so in France. The Stormers are up against Racing 92 at Paris La Defense Arena on Saturday night, while the Sharks battle Bordeaux at Stade Chaban-Delmas on Sunday afternoon.

Before that, the winless Bulls will look to sign off on a positive note when they take on Stade Francais at Loftus Versfeld on Saturday afternoon.

Ulster v Exeter Chiefs

When: Friday, 17 January – 22:00

The Sharks and their supporters will be keen spectators in this one. A massive win for Ulster, along with a heavy defeat for the Durbanites, could see the Irish club leapfrog the Sharks in fourth place, although, it’s unlikely given Ulster’s form.

Both Ulster and Exeter have suffered heavy losses in their three pool games. In fact, they’ve both won just one of their last seven matches in all competitions. Ulster have at least offered a bit more resistance and are at home, so they should take it.

Prediction: Ulster by 9.
Suggested Bet: Exeter Chiefs +17.5 at 1.87.

Bulls v Stade Francais

When: Saturday, 18 January – 15:00

The number one rule in the Champions Cup is you have to win your home games, so when the Bulls were upset 30-21 by the Northampton Saints, following their first-round 27-5 away loss to Saracens, their fate was all but sealed.

As a result, Jake White sent an understrength side to Castres last weekend and ate a 49-10 loss that confirmed the men from Pretoria will play no part in the Round of 16.

With no pressure and a rested ‘A’ team, they’re set to finish their campaign on a high against a Stade Francais side who gave themselves a slight chance of moving on by stunning the Saints 45-35 last weekend.

Prediction: Bulls by 18.
Suggested Bet: Bulls -17.5 at 1.90.

Northampton Saints v Munster

When: Saturday, 18 January – 17:15

It’s a top-of-the-table clash in Pool 2. Northampton held onto top spot despite suffering the first loss of their campaign last weekend.

However, the 10-point defeat at Stade Francais closed their lead to just one point over second-placed Munster, who edged Saracens 17-12 last weekend.

The loss in Paris would’ve been a wake-up call for the reigning Premiership champions who should edge it due to their greater attacking arsenal and strike rate.

Prediction: Northampton Saints by 5.
Suggested Bet: Munster +7.5 at 1.83.

Clermont v Bristol Bears

When: Saturday, 18 January – 17:15

The two teams outside of the top four in Pool 2 meet in an intriguing tussle.

With the two teams immediately above them, Benetton and Bath, likely to lose their fixtures to powerhouses La Rochelle and Leinster, the winners of this clash will likely force their way into the knockouts.

Both of their victories came over Benetton. Clermont blanked the Italian outfit 28-0 in Round 1, while Bristol beat them 35-29 last weekend. Clermont have the better defence of the two teams and will be fuelled by their home crowd, which should get them over the line.

Prediction: Clermont by 7.
Suggested Bet: Bristol Bears by +12.5 at 1.83.

Benetton v La Rochelle

When: Saturday, 18 January – 19:30

After edging Bath 22-21 in Round 2, Benetton put up a brave fight to pick up two bonus points in their above-mentioned six-point loss at Bristol last weekend.

However, they’re set to be steamrolled by a La Rochelle side who are seething after their 16-14 home loss to Leinster last weekend. Expect a comfortable win for the two-time champions.

Prediction: La Rochelle by 16.
Suggested Bet: La Rochelle -10.5 at 1.83.

Leinster v Bath

When: Saturday, 18 January – 19:30

After keeping their unbeaten record in all competitions this season intact with the above-mentioned two-point triumph over rivals La Rochelle, Leinster appear to be in a league of their own.

Bath are coming off a 40-21 victory over Clermont but if they couldn’t beat Benetton away from home, they don’t stand a chance against the four-time champions and United Rugby Championship leaders.

Prediction: Leinster by 18.
Suggested Bet: Leinster -17.5 at 1.84.

Harlequins v Glasgow Warriors

When: Saturday, 18 January – 22:00

With the Stormers and Sale breathing down their neck, Harlequins have to deliver the goods if they want to hold onto their third place in Pool 4. They did just that in their previous home game, smashing the Stormers 53-16.

The second-placed Warriors have been one of the most impressive rising teams in this year’s campaign, building on their 38-19 opening-round win with a 29-19 victory over Racing 92 last weekend.

The reigning URC champions pushed Toulon all the way in France, succumbing 30-29, so they’re worth a shout to eke out the win as underdogs.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 1.
Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors at 2.35.

Racing 92 v Stormers

When: Saturday, 18 January – 22:00

The Stormers’ dominant 40-0 win over the Sale Sharks last weekend was just what the doctor ordered for them to not only stay in the hunt but give them a real shot of qualifying for the Round of 16 as it moved them up to fourth place in Pool 4. They, third-placed Harlequins and fifth-placed Sale are all on five points, with Racing in sixth position on four points. 

Building on the confidence of two derby triumphs in the URC, the destruction of Sale was close to a complete performance. The Capetonians’ ability to strike in transition makes them dangerous to all comers and their defensive effort, while aided by Sale’s impotent attack, will give them added confidence. They’ll know the importance of getting off to a better start, though, and the territory battle will be pivotal.

Racing started their campaign with a 23-12 home win over Quins before dropping their away games to Sale (29-7) and the Warriors (29-19). While a gutsy performance, the loss in Glasgow last weekend stretched their winless run to five games in all competitions.

They are a different team at home and should pip it. However, the Stormers have the confidence and momentum to secure an all-important bonus point to squeeze into the knockouts. 

Prediction: Racing 92 by five.
Suggested Bet: Stormers +14.5 at 1.83.

Bordeaux-Begles v Sharks

When: Sunday, 19 January – 15:00

With Bordeaux-Begles, Toulouse and the Leicester Tigers already through to the Round of 16, only one qualifying spot in Pool 1 remains. Fortunately for the Sharks, they currently occupy fourth place on five points and with winless Ulster and Exeter – both on zero points – playing against each other, the Durbanites could advance even in defeat.

Victory seems a stretch for the Durbanites given their long list of injuries and Bordeaux’s imperious form. The French outfit have collected a full house of 15 log points from their three games, lashing Leicester 42-28 at home and burying Ulster (40-19) and Exeter (69-17) in their own backyards. They’re also leading the TOP 14.

As much as the motivated Sharks will give it their all, Bordeaux will simply be too strong for them, especially at home.

Prediction: Bordeaux-Begles by 18.
Suggested Bet: Sharks +28.5 at 1.83.

Saracens v Castres

When: Sunday, 19 January – 17:15

Three hosts four in Pool 3. Saracens, who have a one-point lead over Castres, started strong with wins over the Bulls (27-5) and Stade Francais (28-17) and will aim to get right back on the horse after their 17-12 away loss to Munster last weekend.

Castres, in turn, stumbled out of the blocks, falling 38-8 to Northampton before registering back-to-back home wins over Munster (16-14) and the Bulls (49-10).

It’s clear, though, that they don’t travel well. They’ve lost their last seven away games on the trot and nine of their last 10, so Saracens should prevail.

Prediction: Saracens by 14.
Suggested Bet: Castres +27.5 at 1.83.

Toulouse v Leicester Tigers

When: Sunday, 19 January – 17:15

Toulouse made it three from three with their 20-8 win over the Sharks but they’ll be happy to be back home after the Durban heat and humidity saw them miss out on a try bonus point, which meant they slipped to second in Pool 1.

The Tigers, three points behind them in third place, may have thumped the Sharks (56-17) and Ulster (38-10) in their last two games, but it’s their opener in France that one should focus on.

That saw them go down 42-28 to Pool leaders Bordeaux and they should fall to the defending champions by a similar scoreline.

Prediction: Toulouse by 21.  
Suggested Bet: Leicester Tigers +21.5 at 1.83.

Sale Sharks v Toulon

When: Sunday, 19 January – 19:30

Sale will be out for redemption after their embarrassing 40-0 defeat in Cape Town last weekend. They couldn’t punch a hole in a paper bag, squandering several try-scoring opportunities, and conceded three yellow cards.

It’ll take a complete 180 for them to have a chance of stopping the unbeaten Pool 4 Toulon and even then, I can’t see them pulling it off. Toulon are a team on a mission and based on their opening-round triumph in Cape Town, I believe they can do the same at Salford.

Prediction: Toulon by 2.
Suggested Bet: Toulon at 2.35.