European Champions Cup Predictions – Round of 16

It’s survival of the fittest as the South African teams break new ground in the European Champions Cup Round of 16 this weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The Sharks and Stormers have secured home play-offs while the Bulls have headed to France in their bid to build on what has been a strong debut season for the South African newcomers.

The Sharks are up first on Saturday as they meet Munster in Durban followed by the Stormers colliding with Harlequins in Cape Town. The Bulls will be in action on Sunday when they tackle Toulouse.

Leicester Tigers v Edinburgh

Friday, 31 March –21:00

Piloted by Handre Pollard, who’s hit red-hot form, the Tigers are firm favourites against embattled Edinburgh, who’ve lost four on the trot. When Pollard’s firing on all cylinders like he is, his team’s extremely tough to beat, and the trip to Leicester looks set to be a long and fruitless one for the struggling Scots.

Prediction: Leicester Tigers by 12.

Suggested Bet: Leicester Tigers -9.5 at 1.81

Sharks v Munster

Saturday, 01 April – 13:30

The Sharks’ Springboks were as rusty as a second-hand beach buggy in the 32-20 loss to the Scarlets last weekend. That’s now in the rear-view mirror with their slew of superstars now expected to deliver.

Munster endured an ever worse nightmare in Glasgow, trailing 28-0 before an improved second-half showing saw them go down 38-26 to the Warriors.

The Irish club have generally been defensively stingy in the United Rugby Championship while offensively, they cause teams trouble with their outstanding offloading game. The humidity will make handling tricky, though. 

It’ll be up to the Sharks to slow down the game to a deliberate pace that suits them and doesn’t allow Munster to build momentum. They have the Springbok-loaded pack to do just that, keep things simple, and claim victory.

Prediction: Sharks by 6.

Suggested Bet: Sharks -5.5 at 1.84.

Stormers v Harlequins

Saturday, 01 April – 16:00

The 22-all draw against Leinster in Dublin last weekend was ideal preparation for this playoff fixture for the Stormers. They got everything out of that game that they wanted bar a win and will carry that confidence into this clash whereas Harlequins suffered a 36-24 loss to Saracens.

The mercurial Marcus Smith and agent of chaos Andre Esterhuizen personify the panache and power that make Quins a tough out for any team. They’re not good travellers, though. Their 39-31 first-round loss to the Sharks started a streak that now stands at seven losses on the road in all competitions.

The Stormers, meanwhile, are imperious at their Cape Town fortress and have a wider spread of quality from 1-23, which will see them book their place in the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Stormers by 8

Suggested Bet: Stormers -8.5 at 1.81

Leinster v Ulster

Saturday, 01 April – 18:30

Leinster will probably feel hard done that their ‘reward’ for topping pool A is this match-up given the familiarity between the Irish clubs. As their third place in the URC attests, Ulster are a much better team than what they’ve shown on the European stage this season and will give Leinster a run for their money. Leo Cullen’s charges, however, have an extra gear and they’ll pull away eventually.

Prediction: Leinster by 10.

Suggested Bet: Ulster +16.5 at 1.86

La Rochelle v Gloucester

Saturday, 01 April – 18:30

Pool B winners La Rochelle got exactly the reward Leinster would’ve wanted in welcoming Gloucester to their backyard. The defending champions are on a mission to retain their crown and it would be a miracle if Gloucester, who’ve lost their last three domestic games, found a way to win. Instead, Ronan O’Gara’s men will run rampant.

Prediction: La Rochelle by 19.

Suggested Bet: La Rochelle -17.5 at 1.81

Exeter Chiefs v Montpellier

Sunday, 02 April – 13:30

Exeter finished second in pool A after winning three of their four fixtures whereas Montpellier squeezed through in pool B with a win, a draw, and two losses. Similarly, they snatched a dramatic 23-22 win over Perpignan at the weekend thanks to a last-gasp penalty by Paolo Garbisi. The Chiefs have saved their best rugby for the big stage and they’ll keep the tenacious French side at bay.

Prediction: Exeter Chiefs by 7

Suggested Bet: Montpellier +8.5 at 1.86

Saracens v Ospreys

Sunday, 02 April – 16:00

The Ospreys have surprised all and sundry by reaching the last 16 but their campaign will come to an end in North London. Saracens are simply in a different class. Owen Farrell and company are the runaway leaders in the Gallagher Premiership whereas the Ospreys are 12th in the URC, so chalk up a convincing win for the English club.

Prediction: Saracens by 16.

Suggested Bet: Saracens -13.5 at 1.85

Toulouse v Bulls

Sunday, 02 March – 16:00

Jake White was outspoken from the very start that it’ll be nigh impossible for a South African side to win the European showpiece in its current format in which they have to play the semi-finals and decider abroad regardless of where they qualify.

It gave off the impression that the competition was an added headache instead of the most prestigious club competition in the world. The one foot in, one foot out mentality saw the Bulls qualify in seventh position in pool A, which meant a meeting with the runners-up of pool B.

As it happens, that team is Toulouse, France’s five-time European champions. The Bulls famously stunned Leinster at home in last year’s URC semi-finals but this is an even steeper mountain to climb. With nothing to lose, they’ll empty the tank, but it’ll be the French giants who march on.

Prediction: Toulouse by 15.

Suggested Bet: Bulls +17.5 at 1.86

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.