EPCR Challenge Cup Predictions – Round of 16

The pool winners – Connacht, Montpellier and Edinburgh – are ranked one to three, the second-placed clubs – the Ospreys, Lyon and Bayonne – are ranked four to six, the two highest-ranked third-placed clubs – Pau and Perpignan – are ranked seven and eight, the qualifying Investec Champions Cup clubs – Racing 92, Bath, the Bulls and the Sharks – are ranked nine to 12, the remaining third-placed club – the Scarlets – are ranked 13, and the fourth-placed clubs – the Lions, Gloucester and Cardiff – are ranked 14 to 16.

Edinburgh v Lions

When: Friday, 4 April – 21:00

No strangers to one another, the Lions meet fellow United Rugby Championship club Edinburgh in the Scottish capital. The Lions are up 2-1 in this rivalry, winning the two ties at Ellis Park, and pushed Sean Everitt’s side close at Hive Stadium, succumbing 17-16 in 2023.

The teams currently find themselves on opposite trajectories. Edinburgh have won two of their last three URC games and are coming off a 38-5 drubbing of the Dragons, while the Lions were whitewashed 42-0 by the Warriors in Glasgow last weekend.

As soon as the Lions have some expectations on their shoulders, they falter, so they’ll relish being the underdogs and will seek redemption for last weekend’s horror show. The conditions won’t be as challenging in Edinburgh but the class and momentum of the hosts should see them knock out the Pride.

Prediction: Edinburgh by 14.

Pau v Bath

When: Friday, 4 April – 21:00

Pau – who boast the competition’s top points scorer so far in the form of Alex Desperes with 52 – had a mixed pool stage, beating the Newcastle Falcons (32-19) and the Dragons (24-15) but losing to the Lions (43-35) and the Ospreys (31-28).

Bath’s only victory in the Champions Cup came at home to Clermont (40-21). Finn Russell and company, however, top the Premiership table, are on a five-match winning streak and have beaten Pau on all three previous occasions in Challenge Cup action.

I expect them to continue that trend in this the first meeting between the sides in the competition since the 2016/17 season. 

Prediction: Bath by 9.

Bayonne v Bulls

When: Saturday, 5 April – 13:30

Bayonne banked a home knockout after wins over the Scarlets (17-16), Black Lion (41-16) and Gloucester (55-17), while the Bulls’ only win in the pool stage of the Champions Cup came against Stade Francais (48-7).

That said, the Herd have hit their stride at the perfect time, smashing Zebre 63-24 in the URC last weekend, and have the cattle to push for the silverware. Speaking of cattle, the hosts have the likes of Manu Tuilagi, Reece Hodge and Mateo Carreras along with the South African-born trio of Torsten van Jaarsveld, Uzair Cassiem and Pieter Scholtz on their books.

As hostile as the crowd and as challenging as this first-ever meeting will be, the Pretoria side should get over the line if they play to their potential.   

Prediction: Bulls by 5.

Montpellier v Gloucester

When: Saturday, 5 April – 18:30

Two-time winners collide at GGL Stadium.

They last met in 2019 in the Champions Cup pool stage, where they each took a win off the other at home.

This season, Montpellier secured a home knockout after an unbeaten pool stage, beating the Dragons (18-14), the Ospreys (59-15), the Lions (28-5) and the Falcons (26-7), while Gloucester – last season’s runners-up – beat Edinburgh (15-10) and the Scarlets (31-7) but lost to Vannes (43-19) and Bayonne (55-17).

Home ground advantage should prove decisive in this one.

Prediction: Montpellier by 6.

Perpignan v Racing 92

When: Saturday, 5 April – 21:00

We have an all-French affair at Stade Aime Giral.

The hosts drew 20-all with the Cheetahs in the opening round before wins over Cardiff (23-20) and Zebre (39-21), but lost 30-23 away to Racing in TOP 14 action earlier this season.

History shows that the home side usually prevail in this rivalry, so Perpignan is the pick.

Prediction: Perpignan by 4.

Connacht v Cardiff

When: Saturday, 5 April – 21:00

Connacht, the highest-ranked club after a perfect pool stage, host a Cardiff team hoping to reach a home final.

The two teams clashed in Round Four, with Connacht clinching a 28-19 away win to confirm a 20-point pool stage, having also beaten Zebre (43-12), Perpignan (31-18) and Lyon (52-24).

Cardiff beat the Cheetahs (26-10) and picked up bonus points against Lyon and Perpignan. In addition to their pool defeat to Connacht, they also lost 24-19 to them in the URC in February.

While they have added impetus with the final being on home soil at the Principality Stadium, Cardiff can’t seem to crack the nut that is Connacht and that won’t change on Saturday.

Prediction: Connacht by 9.

Lyon v Sharks

When: Sunday, 6 April – 18:30

The 2022 Challenge Cup winners Lyon welcome the reigning champions Sharks to Matmud Stadium de Garland.

The French side won their opening two games against Cardiff (37-26) and Zebre (21-19), before falling to Connacht, but then powering past the Cheetahs (68-21) in Round Four.

The Sharks are hoping to repeat their historic charge to the trophy last season after a poor Champions Cup campaign that yielded just one win over the Exeter Chiefs (39-21).

With their Springbok-laden squad, the Durbanites have a real shot at retaining the title but as their 10-7 URC loss to a youthful Leinster last weekend showed, they can’t rely on reputation and have to roll up their sleeves and actually put in the work.

Lyon are seventh in the TOP 14 but are formidable at home, boasting wins over the likes of La Rochelle and Toulon, but the Sharks are worth backing as underdogs.

Prediction: Sharks by 2.

Ospreys v Scarlets

When: Sunday, 6 April – 18:30

After a dramatic late 31-28 win on the road at Pau, the Ospreys secured a home knockout thanks to earlier wins over the Lions (30-14) and the Newcastle Falcons (35-15) too.

The Scarlets will make the short trip down the road having beaten Black Lion (36-18) in Round Two and Vannes (38-28) in Round Four, but falling to Bayonne (17-16) and Gloucester (31-7).

The Welsh rivals clashed last weekend with hosts the Scarlets securing a 38-22 come-from-behind win. With the Ospreys playing at home this time around, I see them being more comfortable and disciplined and holding on for the win. 

Prediction: Ospreys by 5.