European Challenge Cup Predictions – Round 1

The Cheetahs and the Lions begin their hunt for European Challenge Cup glory this weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Eighteen clubs will start the competition with eight representatives from the United Rugby Championship, six from the TOP 14, two from the Premiership, plus two invited teams, namely the Cheetahs and Georgia’s Black Lion.

The clubs have been split into three pools of six with two TOP 14 clubs in each pool. Clubs from the same URC Shield and from the Premiership, as well as the two invitees, have been kept apart. Clubs will play four different opponents home or away with same-league matches being kept to a minimum and only impacting clubs from the URC.

The four highest-ranked clubs from each pool will qualify for the knockout stage where they will be joined by the clubs who finished fifth in their respective European Champions Cup pools.

Both South African sides are in action on Sunday. The Cheetahs start the season at their Amsterdam ‘home’ base against French club Perpignan before the Lions take on Welsh side the Ospreys in Swansea.

Dragons v Montpellier

Friday, 6 December – 22:00

With five straight losses, these Dragons are anything but fire-breathers. Montpellier have been hampered by inconsistency in the TOP 14 but have shown a lot more than the Dragons have in the URC, including pushing high-flying Bordeaux-Begles close last weekend. Chalk up the win for the French visitors.

Prediction: Montpellier by 7.

Gloucester v Edinburgh

Friday, 6 December – 22:00

With a rich history in the tournament, Gloucester are amongst the title favourites and are eager to go one better after going down 36-22 to the Sharks in the final last season.

The English club are two-time winners and three-time runners-up and with four victories in their last five matches, including last weekend’s 25-17 win over reigning Premiership champions the Northampton Saints, they should see off a quality Edinburgh side.

Prediction: Gloucester by 12.

Bayonne v Scarlets

Saturday, 7 December – 15:00

Bayonne have made a strong start to the TOP 14 and have solid form in their last five games with four wins, including a 21-13 victory over Stade Francais last weekend. They also toppled the mighty Toulouse 12-8 last month.

The Scarlets have three wins out of their last five games in the URC but suffered a 15-12 loss to the Glasgow Warriors at the weekend. With the wind in their sails and their passionate home crowd behind them, bank on Bayonne.

Prediction: Bayonne by 10.

Black Lion v Vannes

Saturday, 7 December – 15:00

Georgian club Black Lion showed promise in their tournament debut last year, including securing a historic 23-7 win over the Scarlets, and look to build on that foundation this season.

Vannes are making strides in their debut TOP 14 season. Though at the bottom of the log, they showed they cannot be overlooked when they stunned La Rochelle 23-14 last weekend and will be eager to cause an upset or two in their maiden European Challenge Cup season as well.

This is a tough one to pick, but given Black Lion have a few national stars and home-ground advantage, I’m leaning towards them.

Prediction: Black Lion by 3.

Lyon v Cardiff

Saturday, 7 December – 17:15

Both of these teams were in the Champions Cup last season and are determined to punch their ticket back to the big league.

Lyon’s 29-15 defeat to Pau at the weekend was their fifth consecutive loss in the TOP 14, but kicking off their campaign at home gives them an opportunity to regain momentum and start the European Challenge Cup on a high.

Cardiff have had mixed results in the URC but are coming into their own with back-to-back wins over Ulster and the Dragons. They’ve won all four previous fixtures against the French club, so there’s value in the visitors.

Prediction: Cardiff by 2.

Connacht v Zebre

Saturday, 7 December – 22:00

Zebre rarely have the luxury of momentum, so they’ll want to make the most of it following their 22-17 win over the Ospreys and Connacht’s 28-14 loss to the Bulls in the URC last weekend.

That said, Connacht are a much stronger side, one shooting for the playoffs, and with a particular focus on their discipline this weekend after their red card issue against the Bulls, they should cruise to a convincing win.

Prediction: Connacht by 18.

Pau v Newcastle Falcons

Sunday, 8 December – 15:00

These two clubs meet for the very first time. Pau snapped a four-match losing streak at the perfect time last weekend, running out 14-point winners over Lyon in their TOP 14 tie to put themselves in a better position this week.

The Falcons, however, are flying high as of late with four wins in a row in all competitions. It’s their 17-12 triumph over Saracens last weekend that leaves me convinced they’ll succeed in their French mission.

Prediction: Newcastle Falcons by 4.

Cheetahs v Perpignan

Sunday, 8 December – 15:00

The Cheetahs will once again look to make a strong impression in what’s their only international competition.

Not being among the four South African URC franchises means the Bloemfontein team are starved of world-class competition for most of the year and start their European Challenge Cup campaign on the back foot with a lack of quality preparation. Having bowed out in the Round of 16 last season, they’ll aim for a place in the last eight this time around.

Perpignan have found life tough in the TOP 14. They’re in lowly 11th place with a record of 4-7, so this is a match the Cheetahs must and should win to set themselves up for the remainder of the tournament.

Prediction: Cheetahs by 9.

Ospreys v Lions

Sunday, 8 December – 17:15

The Lions, who like the Cheetahs were knocked out in the Round of 16 last season, face a familiar foe in URC rivals the Ospreys.

The teams are tied at two wins apiece in head-to-head competition and while the Ospreys won the last encounter 36-21, the Lions know what it’s like to triumph in Swansea, having pipped the hosts 28-27 in 2022.

The Pride have looked the business in the URC and find themselves in fifth place, nine spots ahead of their struggling Welsh opponents, who lost 22-17 to Zebre last weekend. The Lions may have lost their last two games but those were against Leinster and Munster in Ireland.

They’ve sent 12 players home to prepare for next weekend’s game against Pau, so according to scrum coach Julian Redelinghuys, wider squad members will get a run on Sunday. That makes it tougher to predict, but I still feel Ivan van Rooyen’s men can snatch it.

Prediction: Lions by 2.