29 August 2019, by: Quintin van Jaarsveld

CURRIE CUP PREDICTIONS – SEMIFINALS

The thrill-fest that is the 2019 Currie Cup competition promises more pulsating rugby as the top four teams tangle in two tantalising semi-finals this weekend.

Last weekend’s dramatic final round of league action kept fans on the edge of their seats, and the excitement level is set to go up another notch on Saturday.

First up, the Golden Lions and Griquas go to war for the second time in as many weeks, this time at Ellis Park after the Johannesburg side’s thrilling 27-26 victory in Kimberley, before the Free State Cheetahs – after having finished the regular season at the top of the table – take on the defending champion Sharks in Bloemfontein.

Only one point separated the sides last weekend, and it should be another thriller on Saturday. Griquas have been brimming with belief this season and while they would’ve been bitterly disappointed that they missed an opportunity to finish at the top of the log, the stinging loss won’t dent their self-confidence.

Brent Janse van Rensburg’s charges have already made history, qualifying for the semi-finals for the first time since 1998, and they’ll be determined to keep their dream of a fairy-tale title triumph alive. Play-offs often come down to who wants it more, and you get the sense that the “minnows” from Griqualand have the greatest desire of the semi-finalists to capture the coveted silverware.

It’s that desire that fuelled their comeback from 19-0 down to getting their noses in front before Shaun Reynolds’ broke the hosts’ hearts with his match-winning penalty at the death. It’s not that they got off to a slow start; they led the dance up until Stean Pienaar’s intercept try against the run of play in the sixth minute.

Griquas’ path to victory this time around is improved discipline. Their tackle technique was poor and contributed to them conceding far too many penalties. The lineout was also a problem area for them, with Marvin Orie’s Springbok class shining through and seeing the Lions dominating the set-piece.

Their key weapon, the driving maul, worked wonders again and was what got them back into the game with timely tries right before and after half-time. Given their lineout supremacy and inability to repel the rolling thunder, the Lions will be well-served contesting the ball this time around rather than focusing on structuring their maul defence. Such tactical tweaks will be key.

With their strong pack of forwards and general George Whitehead in great form at flyhalf, Griquas have a real shot at turning the tables on Saturday. They have a degree of playoff experience, having won the SuperSport Rugby Challenge away from home earlier this year, however, the Currie Cup is a different beast and defeating the Lions at Ellis Park is a much tougher task than taming the Pumas in Saldanha Bay. I suspect it’ll be a bridge too far for the game Griquas.

Prediction: Golden Lions by 5. 

BET: LIO v GRI

Last weekend’s humdinger against Western Province was ideal play-off preparation for the Cheetahs. It was dramatic, intense and saw the hosts having to go through fire to emerge victorious. The same cannot be said for the Sharks and their battle against the Blue Bulls, as they received a big assist – albeit justifiably – in the form of Johnny Kotze’s 37th-minute red card for a dangerous tackle.

The 48-40 win at Loftus was the Sharks’ third in a row, so they head into semi-final Saturday with unmatched winning momentum. If one subscribes to the theory that you’re only as good as your last match, however, it’s the men from Bloemfontein who have momentum on their side.

The Sharks have a psychological advantage having won the previous encounter 27-20 in Round Five. They were considered underdogs then too, despite the clash being contested in Durban. There was nothing in it, though, and it took a Kobus van Wyk try with two minutes remaining for the Sharks to seal victory.

The big difference this time around, other than the action moving to Bloemfontein, is Ruan Pienaar’s (expected) presence in the No.9 jersey. Captain Tian Meyer filled the scrumhalf role at Kings Park, and although he’s a gifted halfback and had a good outing, the Cheetahs shifted into top gear with Pienaar in the driver’s seat and Meyer out on the wing last weekend. The Springbok veteran is also the ideal foe for red-hot rookie Sanele Nohamba, who’s been sensational since earning his first start in the clash against the Cheetahs.

The Sharks also had Curwin Bosch pulling the strings in that contest, which included the Bok playmaker slotting a textbook drop goal. It’s unclear, at the time of writing, if Bosch will be back this week and even though young stand-in Boeta Chamberlain has stepped up well, Bosch will be a major boost should he shake off his injury in time to reclaim the No.10 jersey.

The Cheetahs struggled to cope with the unrelenting pressure Province put on them in the first quarter, which led to SP Marais slotting four consecutive penalties before Wilco Louw’s converted try gave the visitors a commanding 19-point lead. The Sharks will seek to get off to a similar start.

The defending champions’ main concern is their defence. A points’ difference of negative nine speaks to a leaky defence, and they were particularly poor in this regard at Loftus. The Durbanites conceded three rather soft first-half tries and missed 14 tackles in the opening stanza alone, and let in three more in the second half when the Bulls were down to 14 men. Slow off the line, the Sharks will need a serious attitude adjustment for their meeting with the top attacking team in the tournament.

The Sharks won’t give up their crown without a fight, but I see the home side coming out on top.

Prediction: Free State by 7.

BET: FS v SHA

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