Currie Cup Final Prediction – Lions v Sharks

It’s a clash of epic proportions at Ellis Park as the Lions tackle the Sharks in the Currie Cup final on Saturday (16:00 kick-off), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

And then there were two.

We have the Lions, who finished the regular season at the top of the table, and the Sharks, who are on an eight-match winning streak and the only team to beat the pride of Johannesburg this season. That victory, a 35-22 triumph in July, came at Ellis Park, so the Durban side will back themselves to once again do the job away from home. 

The Lions’ 43-34 semi-final win over the defending champion Cheetahs last weekend was a showcase of their depth and development this season. They stayed composed when they were down by 14 early on and stuck to their game plan to work their way back before the quality of their bench pulled them through.

Finals rugby often sees teams play the percentage game, however, the Lions will stick to what brought them to the dance. As the pure predators they are, they won’t veer from their attack-minded game plan, but what they will have to do is tighten up their defence to avoid the decider becoming a tit-for-tat try-fest like last weekend’s catfight. They’ve been defensively sound all season, conceding the fewest tries at 31, with the Sharks next best at 35. Therefore, last weekend’s shootout was the exception to what has been the Lions’ rule in 2024. 

They are far and away the best attacking team, racking up 437 points and 62 tries. The Bulls are second in that regard with 384 points and 54 tries. What the Sharks are concerned, they’ve scored 351 points and 48 tries, putting them fourth behind the Cheetahs (352 points and 50 tries).

On top of their league-leading attack and defence, the Lions are prolific at the breakdown and have several weapons in this regard, from JC Pretorius and Jarod Cairns to Darrien-Lane Landsberg and Marius Louw, while their lineout operates like clockwork. Their scrum is their one vulnerability, and you can bet the Sharks will target this set piece.

The Sharks, who last lifted the Currie Cup in 2018, showed immense character in their drama-filled 100-minute thriller against the Bulls last weekend. Offensively, they showed they can shoot it out with the best of them despite being a tactically orientated outfit at their core.

However, it’s on defence where they truly shone, which sounds strange given both sides scored 40 points. To gut it out and protect their line while being down to 12 men in the closing stages of regular time was nothing short of heroic and ultimately Trevor Nyakane’s try, converted by Lionel Cronje, was enough to seal the draw that saw them advance via their superior try count in the game (six to four).

The men in black and white have great depth and are a super strong team on paper, but how much do they have left in the tank after such a taxing war of attrition? Do they have another battle left in them after such a physically demanding and emotionally draining duel in what will be another all-out sprint on the Highveld?

The Durbanites showed they are die-hards and will pour their hearts and souls into the decider, but I see a fresher Lions team outlasting them to bring the Currie Cup back to Johannesburg for the first time since 2015.

Prediction: Lions by 3.

Suggested Bet: Sharks +3.5 at 1.78.