Mitre 10 Cup

Wellington v Bay of Plenty 

Date: 25 September 2020

Kickoff: 9:05 SA time

The Wellington Lions (1.38) return home after covering the generous +8.5 spread away to Auckland last weekend. The Lions will be without All Blacks in TJ Perenara, Ardie Savea and Asafo Aumua this weekend as they face the Bay of Plenty Steamers (2.90) that laboured to a three point victory over perennial under-performers, Southland Stags.

The Steamers failed to cover the 24.5 point spread against the Stags and have now failed to cover their last four handicaps in the competition. The Steamers are missing Aidan Ross, Kurt Eklund, Mitch Karpik, Sam Cane and Otere Black this weekend which will dent the stocks of the squad. Wellington have covered seven of their last 11 handicaps at home and that’s the way I’m siding this Friday.

Suggested Bet: Wellington -6.5 at 1.80

Points Bet: Wellington over 32.5

Hawke’s Bay vs Canterbury

Date: 26 September 2020

Kickoff: 9:05 SA time

Hawkes Bay Magpies (3.50) got back to winning ways overcoming Counties Manukau at home 31-17 last weekend. Canterbury (1.28) were overturned in their backyard against Taranaki and head on the road for the first time this season. It’s no easy task for Canterbury as they lose 6 of their starters to All Black duty. The Magpies are a tough outfit on their home patch and have covered the handicap in 7 of their last 10 fixtures at McLean Park. Canterbury have been poor on the road having failed to cover the spread in their last four fixtures. I expect the Magpies to beat the spread with ease this weekend.

Suggested Bet: Hawke’s Bay +6.5 at 1.98

Taranaki v Otago

Date: 27 September 2020

Kickoff: 3:05 SA time

The ‘Naki return home after winning the Ranfurly Shield against Canterbury last weekend. Taranaki (1.35) will be without the Barrett brothers this weekend and there is torrential downpour expected in Inglewood this Sunday. Otago (3.00) got their campaign up and running last weekend beating the 4.5 spread to run out 36-25 winners against Manawatu. Otago are fortunate in that they aren’t losing any All Blacks this weekend and the continuity should count in their favour. Taking a glance at the history of the spreads, the ‘Naki have covered just 2 of their last 8 fixtures. Compound that with the Log o’ Wood on the line and ominous conditions, I’m backing the men from Dunedin to keep it close.

Suggested Bet: Otago +7.5 at 1.71

Value Bet: Taranaki 1-12 at 2.50

European Champions Cup

Exeter Chiefs v Toulouse

Date: 27 September 2020

Kickoff: 16:30 SA time

The Chiefs (1.58) enter the Champions Cup semi-finals for the first time in their history overcoming a spirited Northampton Saints side at Sandy Park last weekend. Toulouse (2.10) made light work of an Ulster side through the brilliance of a Cheslin Kolbe double at Stade Toulousain. Toulouse come into this match as slight underdogs, however, the lack of crowd at Sandy Park should provide a levelling factor. The Chiefs have covered 4 of their 5 handicaps at home in the Champions Cup this season and I expect them to continue the trend this weekend.

Suggested Bet: Exeter Chiefs to win

Super Fan Saturday

Bulls v Sharks & Lions v Stormers

Date: 26 September 2020

Time: Bulls v Sharks 16:30pm ; Lions v Stormers 19:00pm

South African rugby fans will be over the moon at the resumption of local rugby this weekend as SuperHero Saturday returns in a double header where the Bulls face off to the Sharks and the Lions tackle the Stormers at Ellis Park. The Bulls will be looking to kickoff the Jake White era in style and have made solid Bok acquisitions in Duane Vermeluen, Jason Jenkins, Gio Aplon, Nizaam Carr and Arno Botha. In contrasting fashion, The Sharks will be without Sbu Nkosi, Makazole Mapimpi, Aphelele Fassi and Andre Esterhuizen. The bookmakers have the wrong favourite here and I will be backing the Bulls to overcome an experimental Sharks outfit on their home turf.

In the second fixture, the Lions face the Stormers in the early evening kick off. The Lions have made shrewd acquisitions in ex-Bulls captain Burger Odendaal, Jaco Kriel and EW Viljoen. The only notable reinforcement for the coastal team sees Warrick Galant swap Pretoria for Cape Town. In the last fixture between these sides, it took an 84th minute try from Ruhan Nel to get the Newlands side over the line. When given a +5.5 head start in a friendly fixture, it’s too tempting not to take as I expect the Stormers players’ lungs to be melting in the last 20 at altitude.

Suggested Bet: Bulls to win

Suggested Bet: Lions +5.5