Olympics 2020 – South Africa v Mexico Preview

South Africa’s U23 side will be taking on Mexico U23s in the last group game at the Olympics on Wednesday afternoon. They need to win by two goals AND hope France lose in order to make it through to the Quarter-finals. The main question is where will those goals come from?

Whereas they didn’t create enough in the first game against Japan, the side did enough against France to suggest they deserved at least one point. The xG shot map from that game shows a massive improvement from the opener, both in terms of shot quantity and shot quality. France still “won” the shot count, but it was a narrower margin (16-14) compared to the count against Japan (12-2).

More importantly, the quality of chances also improved for SA, who created 2.61 worth of xG in this game. Even if you take out Singh’s missed penalty chance (0.75xG), the non-penalty xG of 1.86 is still a big improvement on the 0.5xG in the opening game. The two sides’ shot maps are actually a mirror of each other, with three ’big’ chances for both complemented with lower quality chances around the penalty box. That both sides created the same xG is an indicator as to how close this was.

What Went Wrong?

However, it’s the loss of control that would worry David Notoane. His boys bounced back from missing a penalty to take the lead early in the second half. But they went on to lose that lead, not once, or twice, but thrice in the space of 30 minutes.

The Cumulative xG timeline shows how South Africa were on top for large parts of the game and looked the likely winners until late on. France’ two late goals may have spoiled the party, but there is still hope of qualifying.

What Can Change?

It was clear early on that the team was more attacking in the second game than the first, but that also caused issues at the back. The pass map from the two games indicates the different approaches. We see more involvement for upfield players and less for the backline compared to the first game, all happening higher up the field (on average).

Alongside his central defenders Fleurs (72) and Malepe (66), Ronwen Williams (67) was in the top 3 for passers in the first game. On Sunday, Williams attempted only 20 passes throughout the game, the fewest of all starters. Not once did he pass to a single player more than three times (the passing network lines appear if there were at least 3 passes between players).

South Africa sat back against Japan, but that plan backfired and they lost 1-0. They released the handbrake against France, but that allowed opposition wingers to be effective outlets into dangerous areas. Three of France’s four goals came from similar situations – wingers making smart runs on the flanks before cutting back for centrally positioned players to finish. This proved to be France’s most potent weapon. 

In a must-win-by-two-goals third game, Notoane’s men will have to find the right balance and overcome the odds, which are heavily stacked against them (8.75 for an SA win).