It’s the first week of a brand new season of NFL action and we’ve covered all 15 games. NFL Punter James Godlonton takes us through every game and provides a handicap bet for each one with reasons provided. You can also listen to the podcast version below.
TB Buccaneers v DAL Cowboys (Friday – 2:20)
Tom Brady threw for his most TDs since 2007 last year in Bruce Arians more expansive offence and I don’t expect him to slow down this season. On the other side of the ball, Dak Prescott was averaging over 500 yards a game last season before his horrific ankle injury.
The line is at 8.5, and I expect the Buccs to come away with an opening day victory, however, I believe that a rejuvenated Cowboys offence, who gets their two biggest stars back healthy, will keep the score respectable to cover the spread. I’m backing Dak to shake off the rust and keep this high scoring game competitive.
CIN Bengals v MIN Vikings (Sunday – 19:00)
The Bengals failed to address their need to protect the 2020 no.1 overall pick in QB Joe Burrow and instead used the 5th overall pick on WR Jamaar Chase. This was a mistake and we are going to see a lot of Joe Burrow on the ground again this season. Reminder, Joe Burrow’s season ended prematurely after a brutal hit left him with a torn ACL.
The Vikings have been consistently competitive without threatening the top teams over the last five seasons and I see them being the same again this year. Kirk Cousins will be his usual sometimes boring, but highly productive self and Dalvin Cook will look to continue where left off after a huge 2020 where he put up over 1500 rushing yards and over 16 touchdowns.
Three points are too small a spread, and I expect the Vikings to win this one with a degree of comfort.
DET Lions v SF 49ers (Sunday – 19:00)/span>
The 49ers are one of the best teams in the league, no matter who they decide is going to start at QB. Jimmy G when fit,
is more than capable and Trey Lance who they traded the farm for and took at no.3 looks like the real deal. They were ravaged by injuries last season and they now return the majority of the roster that took them to the Superbowl in 2019. They will be a team to watch.
The Lions have one of the worst rosters in the league and after trading their star QB for another teams slightly worse star QB, things surely won’t get much better. They have the worst receiving core in the league and have veteran Danny Amendola, who only signed with the team yesterday, as their only WR who has been a starter in more than two seasons.
The Lions will be better in seasons to come when they can spend some of the draft capital they’ve accrued, but they will be the “they tried hard” team this season and ultimately be on the end of some bad score lines. That’s why I’m confidently taking 49ers to cover here.
ATL Falcons v PHI Eagles (Sunday – 19:00)
The Falcons offence will be formidable again even after losing Julio Jones, mainly because they made Kyle Pitts the highest-drafted TE in history when they selected him no.4 overall. Pitts looks like a generational talent and alongside Ridley, they provide lethal weaponry for the veteran Matt Ryan to look for. However their offence is not the issue, their defence was a shambles last season and if they can’t improve, they will face picking early in the draft again in 2022.
Be cautious in listening to the Jalen Hurts hype. He completely 52% of his passes and at this stage looks like a poor man’s Lamar Jackson. His inability to pass the ball accurately is a massive concern. It doesn’t help to draft a Heisman winning WR if your QB can’t find him.
Bold Prediction: The Eagles turmoil at QB will continue and Jalen Hurts will lose the starting job to Gardner Minshew before the end of the season.
Doubts over Hurts’ ability and the Falcons’ weaponry means that the Falcons have to be favoured to cover the spread at home.
IND Colts v SEA Seahawks (Sunday – 19:00)
Question marks surround the fitness of Carson Wentz and whether or not he can rediscover the form that he showed in 2018 when he was in the MVP conversation. The Colts defence will be a quality outfit again led by the recently extended First-Team All-Pro Darius Leonard.
Russel Wilson has only failed to get to 10 wins in a season once in his career when the Seahawks went 9-7 and I don’t see this being an issue for him again in 2021. I don’t think they have improved much through the draft and free agency, but with Russ and DK, they will always be a threat. If their defence can get some stops on third down, they’ll win this game.
HOU Texans v JAX Jaguars (Sunday – 19:00)
The two worst teams in the league, baring possibly only the Lions. This is a game for the gamblers and the diehard NFL fans who are willing to drudge through these talentless rosters to find a reason as to why either team should be favoured.
Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer on paper look a formidable combination however with only three preseason games under their belts, the home team should still be favoured here.
BUF Bills v PIT Steelers (Sunday) – 19:00
Josh Allen had an enormous 2020 which had him in the MVP conversation. He was duly rewarded with a new 6 year, $258m contract with $150m guaranteed, which has set the bar even higher for new QB deals. Stefon Diggs, who seemed to unlock Allen’s potential by letting unleash his cannon of an arm returns after a career year where he leads the league in receiving yards. We also know their defence will be stingy again and will be difficult to put points on. They also addressed their weakness by adding to their pass rush in Greg Roussouw and Boogie Basham in the first and second rounds.
People are underestimating the Steelers and seem to forget that Mike Tomlin is yet to have a losing season in his 14 years in Pittsburgh. Although they lost Bud Dupree to the Titans, TJ Watt, who leads the league in sacks, TFL and QB hits is still there along with the rest of the starters from last year. Although criticized for not being able to push the ball down the field, Big Ben threw 33 TDs to 10 interceptions.
This line is too big. The Bills will win, but the Steelers will keep it tight.
CAR Panthers v NY Jets (Sunday – 19:00)
There’s a grudge match in week 1 when Sam Darnold’s Panthers host the team who drafted him 3rd overall in 2018 before trading him this season and drafting his replacement, Zach Wilson 2nd overall. Darnold will be chomping at the bit to get one over his old team and with the return of Christian McCaffrey, the league’s most dynamic RB, he has the weapons to out-muscle the Jets.
The Jets improved their WR room after drafting Elijah Moore in the second round and signing Corey Davis from the Titans. They also prioritised protection for their new golden boy when they traded two third round picks to move up and draft guard Alijah Vera-Tucker with the 14th overall pick.
Zach Wilson will be eager to start his Jets career with a win, but the Panthers are just too strong and they will struggle to even cover the spread.
TEN Titans v ARI Cardinals (Sunday – 19:00)
Derrick Henry REALLY is the king. After a season in which he joined seven (only) other players to rush for 2000 yards, Henry will be looking to continue right where he left off. The addition of Julio Jones to partner AJ Brown makes this offence truly terrifying. Ryan Tannehill is also quietly one of the best QBs in the AFC.
The Cardinals added veterans AJ Green and JJ Watt after losing long-time CB Patrick Peterson; but will it be enough to make them a threat in the NFC? They are in arguably the best division in the league so they have six immense matchups without even leaving the division.
Depending on which Cardinals team shows up could make this game interesting, but if they are slightly off the boil, the Titans are going to make this ugly. They should cover this spread easily.
WAS Football Team v LA Chargers (Sunday -19:00)
Justin Herbert is coming off an incredible rookie season where he smashed Baker Mayfield’s rookie touchdown record and took home the NFL Rookie of the Year award. His head coach has been replaced, so it will be interesting to see how they play under the defensive-minded Brandon Staley.
Ryan Fitzpatrick will start the opening game and in doing so will represent his ninth NFL team in 16 years. The WFT’s defence was immense last season, finishing in the top five in points allowed and Chase Young picked up the Defensive Rookie of the year award. WFT should be great on offence again this year, but their QB1 position has huge question marks.
The Chargers are a very good team and the WFT QB situation remains a concern. The Chargers should pick up a weekend win.
NY Giants v DEN Broncos
The Broncos added another piece to their already formidable defence when they surprised everyone and selected Surtain instead of drafting a QB which many pundits thought they would. 8x Pro Bowler Von Miller will also be back after missing the entire 2020 season due to injury. The big question mark surrounds the QB position and whether or not Teddy Bridgewater can be effective after Drew Lock disappointed last year after showing promise in his rookie year.
The Giants get star RB Saquon Barkley back after he missed the majority of the season with a torn ACL, but it’s unlikely he will start against Denver. Daniel Jones still has a bad habit of turning over the ball too often, but the addition of some serious weaponry may do him some good after he posted the highest rating when throwing deep down the field last season.
With the Broncos overpowered defence and the Giants likely to make a slow start to the season, this line is too small even with the Broncos being on the road.
NO Saints v GB Packers
The Saints are starting life without Drew Brees and what that looks like, we are still uncertain of. Jameis Winston has been named the starter but don’t be surprised if you see Taysom Hill on the field a whole bunch this season. They’ll be without Michael Thomas again to start the season but Marquez Callaway, who they picked up as a UDFA a year ago looked great in the preseason and if those performances were anything to go by, could be an important contributor to this team.
The Packers are returning the majority of their roster but most importantly they are returning with the reigning MVP. Aaron Rodger’s Packers’ career was in doubt for the majority of the offseason, but when the dust settled he appeared at training camp. With Rodgers on your roster, you’ll never have a bad team and when you have him throwing balls to arguably the best route runner in the league, they are going to be a permanent threat.
The Packers are on the road, but with the uncertainty in New Orleans, this is an easy decision.
KC Chiefs v CLE Browns
In the game of the weekend, the Browns travel to the Chiefs with the most hope the franchise has ever had entering the season. They went 11-5 last season and bagged their first playoff victory since 1994. They will return all of their starters on offence and have added significant upgrades on the defensive side of the ball in Jadaveon Clowney, John Johnson III, Troy Hill and Anthony Walker to name a few. Not to mention first round CB Greg Newsome and arguably the steal of the draft in LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah in the second round. 2020 Coach of the Year Stefanski will be keen to improve in his second year in the job and any less than more playoff wins will be a disappointment.
What awaits the Browns in week 1 is the favourites to win this year’s Super Bowl. Pat Mahomes led the Chiefs to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances and was a shining light for them in disappointing defeat in the Super Bowl. Although he was running for his life for the majority of the contest, he still put the ball into positions where it was felt that his receivers should have done more to help him. The Chiefs have a cheat code at QB, the Cheetah at WR and the best TE in the league. Expect them to be incredibly good again, 17-0 is not unattainable.
It will come as a massive shock to the sporting world if the Browns were to pull off an upset here, but the Browns will be looking to show they mean business and what better way than to give the Chiefs a good run. Expect a well fought, high scoring affair.
NE Patriots v MIA Dolphins (Sunday – 22:25)
Rookie Mac Jones (Patriots) take on the QB who kept him out of the Alabama team until last year, in Tua Tagovailoa. They both won a championship with ‘Bama and will be looking to add to their CV’s with a trophy at the next level. There is limited tape on Tua as he was used sparingly last season as Fitz’magic put on a show and reported confidence in Tua was low. This will be his make or break year, if he doesn’t perform look for the Dolphins to move on quickly as they are in win-now mode. The roster is one of the best in the leagues, so there is no doubt that should they underperform, fingers will be pointed at the young QB.
Mac Jones on the other hand will be under less pressure as the Patriots released his competition in Cam Newton. He has been handed the keys to the kingdom and with a roster that is still loaded with stars and the greatest coach in the sport, watch out for the Pats to come storming back and punch some teams in the mouth.
The Patriots at home will be difficult to beat and with the wily old fox Bill Belichick in charge, they should still be favoured in the majority of their games.
LA Rams v CHI Bears (Monday – 02:20)
The Rams traded a player they selected no.1 overall in 2016 AND two first Round picks to the Lions in exchange for the player they in turn selected no. 1 overall way back in 2009. The Rams are all-in on Matthew Stafford now and will hope that he can be the missing piece of the puzzle and get them back to the Super Bowl.
The Bears signed Andy Dalton in free agency and then had Justin Fields fall to a position in the draft where they felt it was too good to be true and traded up to go get him. Now they sit with two starting QBs and although Dalton has been named the starter, everyone knows the future is Fields. The only question is, how soon will Fields take over?
The Rams are going to be one of the best teams in the league this year and the Bears with Andy Dalton don’t stand much of a chance in this one. The spread is big, but the Rams should cover.
LV Raiders v BAL Ravens (Tuesday – 02:20)
The Raiders GM has stated this season that “We are a playoff team”, what he’s actually saying is, “If we don’t make the playoffs, I’ll make some changes”. The Raiders haven’t been what people thought they could be when John Gruden signed his 10-year deal. Their squad is good but not great and play in a division that has Pat Mahomes and Justin Herbert, they’ll do well to go 3-3 in their division.
The Ravens took a hammer blow last week when JK Dobbins their star RB was ruled out for the season after tearing his ACL in the last pre-season game. This is tough for the team to take but the scoreline won’t be so upset. The Ravens most effective runner happens to also throw the ball and is ready to prove the haters wrong. He has a ridiculous 30-7 regular-season record and under the mentorship of John Harbaugh, they will continue to win the majority of games.
The Ravens are just too dynamic on offence, even without Dobbins and some of their new WRs they will be too much for this Raiders team.
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