UFC 259: Jan Blachowicz v Israel Adesanya Prediction

Greatness beckons at UFC 259, a fight card for the ages featuring a titanic title triple-header in Las Vegas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Top 10 UFC knockouts of 2020

One of the most stacked cards in the MMA leader’s history, the action will emanate from the UFC APEX where middleweight champion Israel Adesanya moves up to light heavyweight in pursuit of champ champ status in a blockbuster main event battle against 205-pound title-holder Jan Blachowicz.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGLyxoNQT4E

MAIN CARD (from 5.00 Sunday morning SA time):

Jan Blachowicz v Israel Adesanya (Light Heavyweight)

All eyes are on Adesanya as he aims to become just the fifth fighter in UFC history to hold two titles simultaneously. Not since the rise of Conor McGregor, the first man to achieve the legendary feat, has a fighter taken the UFC by storm like “The Last Stylebender.”

The Nigerian-born, New Zealand-bred phenom is a perfect 20-0, with nine of those victories coming inside the Octagon. His first-round annihilation of Derick Brunson was the fourth win of his rookie year in the promotion in 2018 and served as a showcase of what a special talent he is.

His fifth UFC appearance saw the kickboxing savant out-strike the great Anderson Silva before he conquered Kelvin Gastelum in an all-time classic to clinch the interim title. He emphatically ended the reign of Robert Whittaker inside two rounds at UFC 243 in October 2019 to become the undisputed middleweight king and has defended his title twice, despatching the two biggest and baddest men in the division in Yoel Romero and Paula Costa last year.

In just four years, he’s become a bonafide superstar, and if he’s able to beat Blachowicz, he’ll join McGregor, Nunes, Daniel Cormier and Henry Cejudo in the most elite wing among MMA royalty – double champions. A victory would also send a clear message to heated rival and consensus GOAT Jon Jones – who’d long ruled the light heavyweight landscape until he vacated the belt and announced a move to heavyweight last year – that he’s ready for their ultimate superfight.

Blachowicz (27-8), understandably, feels disrespected. A hulk of a human being, he looks anything but an underdog and is both feared and revered for his “Polish power.” Yet, he’s been the UFC’s ultimate underdog in recent years. He’s been the dog in his last four fights and won all of them, three by devastating knockout.

Luke Rockhold, a former middleweight champion moving up and looking to take Blachowicz’s spot in the light heavyweight elite, was the first to fall during the Polish predator’s punishing purple patch. Corey Anderson was the next to crumble as Blachowicz connected with a hellacious right hand that earned him a place on our top 10 knockouts of 2020 list.

Top 10 UFC knockouts of 2020

Finally, he shocked all and sundry when he destroyed Dominick Reyes at UFC 253 last September to capture the championship vacated by Jones. “After I beat Rockhold, I was also an underdog there,” Blachowicz told MMA Fighting in response to his status going into his first title defence.

“One guy after the fight came to me and said ‘thank you, my friend, because thanks to you I’m a rich man right now,’ and I said what happened? He said thanks to me he won $50,000. So it’s nice to hear something like that after that. Maybe right after this fight, someone will win big money also.”

Blachowicz’s coronation came on the same night of Adesanya’s masterful massacre of previously unbeaten Brazilian Costa in Abu Dhabi and the two have been on a champion versus champion collision course ever since. “I’m always the underdog and I always win the fight. It’s really nice. I could be the underdog every time.

“Maybe after this fight, when I win this fight, I believe I will win this fight, maybe after this fight people will start believing in me, respect me and that’s it. But anyway, I don’t care about this. He’s a really good fighter. He’s a champion. Nobody defeat him. 20-0 also, so he is good, he has to be good but it’s time for 20-1,” he added.

With dynamite in both hands, Blachowicz will knock Adesanya out cold if he connects cleanly. The same was true for Romero and Costa, and neither could land the kill shot. Blachowicz will find it even tougher because of the greater speed discrepancy.

It goes without saying that Blachowicz is the bulkier of the two, but Adesanya’s two inches taller at 6’4″ and will have a two-inch reach advantage. The 31-year-old has fantastic footwork on top of his speed, so there’s no doubt he’ll be an elusive target for the power puncher from Poland.

Over and above that, Adesanya is arguably the most sophisticated striker in UFC history. In the stand-up sphere, it’s a case of Adesanya playing chess and Blachowicz checkers. The former will set traps with every step he takes, offer looks and attack from angles the latter’s never seen inside the Octagon before.

As much as Blachowicz is a bazooka-wielding brute, Adesanya’s a sharpshooter. If he’s allowed to stay on the outside, he’ll pick anyone in the UFC apart. His accuracy is laser-like, which in unison with his speed and footwork, allows him to use his opponents’ momentum against them.

As such, Blachowicz’s best path to victory is to smother the lighter challenger. His smartest battle strategy is to go to his grappling, shoot for takedowns and initiate clinches, wear on Adesanya, fatigue and soften him up with dirty boxing and if he does take him down, control him from top position.

A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Blachowicz has a clear advantage on the ground where he’ll be the one asking questions as Adesanya would have to be alert for fight-finishing submission and ground-and-pound threats in equal measure. “Izzy” has excellent takedown defence (87%), but Blachowicz’s a different beast given he’ll have a big weight advantage.

Considering Blachowicz’s heavy hands and recent history of defying the odds, backing him as a major underdog’s not only alluring but has merits as well. However, I believe Adesanya will be able to evade Blachowicz’s best shots and fell the 38-year-old veteran. I won’t be surprised if “The Last Stylebender” stops him with strikes, but I suspect he’s more likely to outpoint him.

Prediction: Adesanya via decision.

Best Bet: Adesanya via points at 3.50.

Alternative Bet: Adesanya via KO/TKO at 3.00.