UFC 254 Khabib v Gaethje – Predictions and Main Card Betting Tips

Dagestan destroyer Khabib Nurmagomedov will face the toughest test of his career when he puts his lightweight championship and unprecedented unbeaten record on the line against knockout artist Justin Gaethje in the main event of UFC 254 at Fight Island in Abu Dhabi on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time).

In the co-headliner, former middleweight champion Robert Whitaker goes to war with the surging Jared Cannonier with the winner set to earn a shot at reigning king Israel Adesanya. Before that, top 10 heavyweights Alexander Volkov and Walt Harris will seek to move one step closer to a title opportunity of their own.

Traditionally the premier weight class in the promotion, with athletes boasting an unmatched blend of size, power and athleticism, light heavyweights Magomed Ankalaev and Ion Cutelaba will set the tone in what promises to be an exciting main card opener, while the impressive Lauren Murphy will welcome Liliya Shakirova to the promotion in the featured female scrap.

MAIN CARD (from 4.00 Sunday morning SA time):

Khabib Nurmagomedov v Justin Gaethje (lightweight championship)

In the UFC’s shark-infested waters, Nurmagomedov is the apex predator. Twenty-eight elite mixed martial artists have tried and failed to defeat the Russian wrecking ball, 12 of those victims falling at his feet in the world-famous Octagon.

In the 36 rounds, he’s spent in the sport’s ultimate proving ground, he’s lost just one, to arch-rival Conor McGregor in their record-breaking grudge match two years ago. A relentless and ruthless wrestler, he’s the breaker of wills and taker of souls. Simply put, “The Eagle” is the most dominant force in UFC history.

Only one man, Al Iaquinta, has gone five full rounds with Nurmagomedov and while the double-tough New Yorker deserves credit for going the distance back in April of 2018, Nurmagomedov notably played it safe due to the last-minute change in opponent (with Iaquinta having replaced an injured Tony Ferguson) with the vacant lightweight strap up for grabs. Extra caution notwithstanding, Nurmagomedov systematically steamrolled “Raging Al” to start his title reign.

The usual discussion around height and reach is irrelevant when it comes to a Nurmagomedov fight. No-one has been able to firstly, keep the bulldozer at bay and, secondly, deal with the 32-year-old’s superhuman wrestling. It’s not a matter of if his opponent will be taken down but rather, what he’ll do from there to avoid being mauled to pieces like so many before him.

So, what makes Gaethje different? Firstly, the God-given one-punch knockout power he possesses in both hands, coupled with a kill or be killed nature that’s earned him his moniker and reputation as one of the most exciting and popular pugilists of all-time, whose excellent 22-2 record includes 19 knockouts.

The fifth-round finish of “El Chucuy” was his third violent stoppage in a row, however, it was unlike any other, with Gaethje displaying new-found patience behind wicked leg kicks to pick Ferguson, who was riding a 12-fight win streak, apart. Is the lack of a live crowd an unlikely ally for the Arizona ace, considering he wasn’t ‘punch-drunk’ on the roar of the fans as he’s been guilty of in the past?

On the other hand, is this not the very stylistic match-up where he has to come out guns blazing? I believe it is, but with no room for error and the stakes being at an all-time high in this champion versus champion megafight, I have a sense he’ll take the measured approach that worked so well against Ferguson.

What you won’t see in his highlight reel of hellacious knockouts is the fact that Gaethje is a great wrestler…an all-American. If (and it’s a big if) anyone in the lightweight division can keep the fight against Nurmagomedov standing, it’s him. However, the longer the fight goes, the more it favours the Russian. Gaethje’s best bet is surges of controlled chaos in the opening rounds.

Leg kicks will play a part in one way or another, either as the tip of Gaethje’s spear or the opening Nurmagomedov takes to put his foe on his back. It’ll be intense and captivating however long it lasts, but I see a cerebral Nurmagomedov controlling the contest and ultimately finishing a game Gaethje in either the third or fourth round.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov via fourth-round submission at 28.00

Suggested Bet: Nurmagomedov to win every round – Round 1 at 4.50 & Round 2 at 6.50

Suggested Bet: Fight to go the Distance? NO at 1.44

Suggested Bet: Nurmagomedov via submission at 2.65

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CGkPvu5ljc8/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Robert Whittaker vs. Jared Cannonier (middleweight)

The markets reflect how evenly matched these top-five middleweights are. Former champion Whittaker (22-5) bounced back from his devastating defeat to “The Last Stylebender” in front of his home crowd in Melbourne this time last year – his first loss since February of 2014 – with a unanimous decision win over the dangerous Darren Till in July.

That clash showed Whittaker’s champion mentality and tactical nous as he stayed sharp for five full rounds to win a bloody chess match over an ultra-technical striker in the form of the former welterweight title challenger. The 25 minutes in the Octagon would’ve done “The Reaper” the world of good, and it came at Fight Island, so the Australian has that advantage going for him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrFJJJZ4yKw

Third-ranked Cannonier (13-4) hasn’t fought since last September, but there’s a sense that it’s his time. That’s because “The Killa Gorilla” has been an absolute savage since dropping down to middleweight, starching David Branch, the legendary Anderson Silva and Jack Hermansson by TKO. He’s explosive and dynamic, whereas Whittaker is more precise and tactical on the feet. They’re equally lethal in contrasting ways.

At six-foot, Whittaker is an inch taller but don’t let that fool you – Cannonier is the much bigger man, having started his career at heavyweight and having gone toe-to-toe with the best the light heavyweight division has to offer, including Glover Teixeira, Dominick Reyes and newly-crowned champion Jan Blachowicz.

Whittaker has dealt with a freak of nature like Cannonier before, outlasting Yoel Romero in two epic wars. His superior experience, more complete skillset and excellent footwork should allow him to dodge Cannonier’s best shots and emerge with another physically and mentally draining win on the scorecards to solidify his position as the number one contender.

Prediction: Whittaker by Unanimous Decision at 3.75

Suggested Bet: Fight to go the Distance? Yes at 2.10

Alexander Volkov vs. Walt Harris (heavyweight)

Don’t blink in this battle of true heavyweights, with sixth-ranked Volkov standing 6’7 and eighth-ranked Harris 6’5. Both behemoths are knockout artists, with 20 of Volkov’s 31 wins and all 13 of Harris’ victories coming via KO. The taller “Drago” knows how to use his reach and will look to stay on the outside, while “The Big Ticket” is the more explosive and powerful athlete who does his best work up close.

Both men will be looking to rebound from disappointing defeats at Fight Island. Harris was finished by Alistair Overeem in May, while Volkov dropped a unanimous decision to Curtis Blaydes in June. An emotional Harris, in his first fight following the abduction and murder of his daughter, was moments away from finishing the Dutch legend and possibly would have under different circumstances before Overeem turned the tables in the second round.

With that in mind, along with the fact that they are so evenly-matched and that one punch is all it takes in the heavyweight division, I’m backing the underdog Harris and putting a few extra bucks on the fight finishing inside 2.5 rounds.

Prediction: Harris via second-round knockout at 3.75

Suggested Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds at 1.71

Suggested Bet: Harris to win at 2.35

Lauren Murphy v Liliya Shakirova (flyweight)

Shakirova is a sizeable underdog and for good reason. It’s not that she’s a pushover by any means; she has good takedowns, solid ground-and-pound and is 8-1 with four finishes. However, she faces a massive step-up in competition as a late replacement for Cynthia Calvillo (who tested positive for Covid-19) in fourth-ranked Murphy (13-4) in her promotional debut. Murphy’s a well-rounded UFC veteran on a three-fight win streak and should be too good for the newcomer. At 3.05, under 2.5 rounds has my money.

Prediction: Murphy via second-round TKO at 15.00

Suggested Bet: Fight to go the Distance? No at 3.75

Suggested Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds at 4.13

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba (light-heavyweight)

The two light heavyweight prospects will finally settle their unfinished business in a rematch that’s been rebooked on five occasions since their first meeting in February. Ankalaev (13-1) got his hand raised, but the controversial stoppage marred the match-up.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CEcofAOJ4rF/

Like Nurmagomedov, Ankalaev hails from Dagestan, so it’s no surprise that he’s a sambo savant. He has heavy hands, as well, which have earned him eight knockouts. He’s on a four-fight tear and is ranked 11th. Cutelaba (15-5, 1 no contest), conversely, is outside of the top 15, having gone 4-4 in the Octagon and 1-2 in his last three outings. It’s unlikely that “The Hulk” will flip the script this time around given Ankalaev has more tools at his disposal and comfortably mixed it up in the stand-up, where Cutelaba had been expected to have an advantage.

Prediction: Ankalaev by decision at 5.00

Suggested Bet: Fight to go the Distance? Yes at 3.25

Suggested Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds at 1.71