18 September 2019, by: Hansley Jugar
UCL 2019/2020 PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Mid-week football is back and many people will be thrilled to hear the Champions League theme song blaring out of their TV sets after a short hiatus. There will be no tentative starts with Matchday 1 including match-ups between some of Europe’s heavy hitters. PSG face Real Madrid, with Juventus squaring off against Atletico Madrid.
Similar to a piece we did predicting the outcome of the ABSA PSL season, we decided to predict who the likeliest winner of the Champions League would be.
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A predictive model was developed that suggested the probability of a team winning a match-up. Three metrics were used: BET.co.za odds, match location and the team’s performance in last season’s Champions League competition.
Percentage of times team won Champions League in 1000 simulations. Teams to win less than 1% have been excluded.
After running 1000 simulations and aggregating the results, we created the overall results table above. Manchester City, Barcelona and Liverpool (who have the best odds according to BET.co.za) ended up winning a combined 55% of the simulations and are undoubtedly the favourites. Juventus offer an intriguing option, they had a decent transfer window and a favourable draw in the latter stages could see them finally win a trophy that has eluded them for over two decades.
There is little difference between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid in terms of the result, which suggests that any of the teams in this grouping have a chance if results and luck is on their side.
South Africa’s lone representative (Percy Tau) in this year’s Champions League finds himself in an immensely tough group. They failed to progress to the next round on every single simulation run.
Group B seems like one of the most cut and dry groups with last season’s finalists, Tottenham and Bayern favourites to progress. Both teams are dark-horses for the title based on the simulation.
Overall favourites, Manchester City should easily make it out of Group C. The other qualifier out of the group is a bit more open and any of the three remaining teams will feel they have a chance at moving to the next round.
Juventus and Atletico Madrid have lost two finals each over the past 6 seasons, and both will be eager to put those disappointments behind them.
Liverpool have every chance of being only the 2nd team ever to reclaim the Champions League trophy. They find themselves in an easy group and along Napoli, are favorites to progress from Group E.
Perennial favourites, Barcelona will look to end a stretch of unbelievable exits from the Champions League this season but will need to see off the unpredictable Borussia Dortmund and resurgent Inter Milan.
Group G is perhaps the most open in this season’s competition. None of the clubs made it far in the competition using our simulation but all four are capable of being a bogey team in the latter stages.
Another tight group. Chelsea are favourites over last season’s semi-finalists Ajax, but with a new coach and a team that is lacking in star quality, they will need to be at their best to overcome their competitors.
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