Race 3 - Debutante (Grade 2)
This Grade 2 for 3 year old fillies over 1200m sees renewed rivalries round the Greyville bend. Coming into a race like this well weighted has its advantages, although at a young age progressive horses can spring surprises on the handicappers. The outcome here will provide a platform for future success amongst this crop of speedy fillies.
Tip: MIRACLE FLIGHT – I’m opted for a bit of value, and the combination of Paul Peter and Warren Kennedy are not much of a gamble these days. The politics around jockey bookings between the current favourite Springs Of Carmel and this Var filly in unknown to me, but no doubt we’ll see the score settled between the two Paul Peter runners in a hotly contested finish. Ecstatic Green, to me, seems the biggest danger, but Miracle Flight comes into this the obvious speedster of the fancied runners, and being well in at the weights, could prove to be her advantage. Expect her to fly out the gates and test the other’s early toe. The only question mark will be her ability to see out the 1200m, which may suit the more fancied runners.
BET: Race 3
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Race 4 - Umkhomazi Stakes (Grade 2)
This 3 year old Grade 2 race over 1200m could likely be a more wide open affair than the betting and form suggests. With the top two in the betting both drawn wide, it provides a chance for less fancied horses up the inside to be in the mix. The question will be how much of an advantage these outsiders need to cause the upset.
Tip: GARRULOUS – Whilst being less exposed to big races than Erik The Red and Pray For Rain, I cannot ignore its last race over the course and distance. A repeat of that lightning fast, front running domination in a Juvenile Plate will likely have this race sewn up, and the value on offer here is too good to pass up. Again, Warren Kennedy takes the ride from a plum draw of 2. Getting the fast start may put the top two in the betting out of the race early, and I’m hoping a little cover round the bend gives Garrulous the perfect run in down the straight.
BET: Race 4
Race 5 - Thekwini Stakes (Grade 1)
Despite being a Grade 1, there seems a distinct gap in class between the first few in the betting and the rest. Dangerous to say, but I can’t see you going wrong disregarding a lot of these. Plenty of these 3 year old fillies try the 1600m trip for the first time, and I’m going to bet on experience over this distance being the ultimate factor in this one.
Tip: ANYTHING GOES – For a small Joburg stable like Stuart Pettigrew, and up and coming jockey Diego de Gouveia, this is likely their biggest chance to shine in Champions Season to date. They seem to have an immaculate Var filly on their hands, and the unbeaten form to match. It may seem risky backing these raiders at short odds, but it seems the right fit for this race. Love Bomb sprung the big upset on July Day, and thus is included again in the reckoning, albeit trying the 1600m for the first time. Drawn wider are the fancied War of Athena and Caralluma, both who haven’t run this distance before. I prefer the former, but would much rather side with the favourite in this one with on the exposed form to date.
BET: Race 5
Race 6 - Premier’s Champions Stakes (Grade 1)
The field for this 1600m is packed with 3 year olds looking to add a prestigious Grade 1 accolade to their record early on in their careers. The field features runners from 3 separate races from July Day up against the proven talent of the sole Grade 1 winner to date. It looks to be a case of Tempting Fate vs the rest, with some strong candidates that will have every chance.
Tip: PORTICO – Besides Tempting Fate and the July Day win from Nourbese, there isn’t a lot of standout class considering this is a Grade 1. If you consider Tempting Fate is going an extra 400m for the first time from a wide draw, there seems little value in following at short odds. He could well be the class act and show the field up, but not for me. This throws the race wide open and I fancy the huge value on offer for Portico. He ran next to Nourbese in the Golden Horseshoe win, and the forecasted betting suggest Nourbese will be around 5/1, with Portico around 16/1. I’m taking the each way value and reckon the extra 200m they’ll both run could be anyone’s to win.
BET: Race 6
Race 7 - Gold Cup (Grade 3)
The 3200m Gold Cup distance makes this race a standout on the day. A trip not often covered in South Africa, the runners in this have to be bred to suit this, and this year’s running has plenty that can stake their claim. The 2018 champion, It’s My Turn, is back after a layoff since winning, and is now joined with some serious contenders who have made their names since then. The betting suggest a two horse race, but judging form over this distance throws the race wide open.
Tip: FACTOR FIFTY – I’m a believer in looking for value over these distances. The comeback runs from It’s My Turn have shown serious potential, and Marchingontogether does look its closest rival. Looking at recent form brings way more runners into this race, and Factor Fifty comes to the fore for me. Anton Marcus doesn’t take rides for fun, and she was tipped on July Day in the Gold Vase, running 2.1 lengths off the winner in 7th, after some distress at the start put her off her game. The forecast betting suggests you’ll get around 14/1 on the day, and to me the each way value here is the best play.
BET: Race 7
Race 8 - Mercury Sprint (Grade 1)
Rivalries are renewed once again amongst these top class sprinters over the 1200m distance. Kasimir, Chimichuri Run and Russet Air have all taken blows at each other over the years, and now look to meet again in what could be the pinnacle of their careers. They’ve copped the three widest draws which looks to open things up for the others, but it wouldn’t be a disappointment to see these three fighting it out for top spot once again.
Tip: KASIMIR – The betting suggest another 3-way split in this, and siding with the reigning champ seems the sensible play. In weight for age contests like this, the likelihood of an outsider springing up gets exponentially tougher, and Kasimir tops the best weighted boards in addition to being the most accomplished. Van Halen from an inside draw looks the value in the race, but as a perennial bridesmaid, never seems to go home the victor. Kasimir is a tentative inclusion for doubles and trebles.
BET: Race 8
Race 9 - Champions Cup (Grade 1)
Whilst not the most wide open of races, the battle of the day see its next thrilling episode in this 1800m Grade 1. With Rainbow Bridge and Do It Again duelling once again, there’s an unlikely opening over this distance for a surprise, but the rest of the field doesn’t supply much confidence of it happening. Distance and draw will probably be the factors at play, with both horses back to their best fitness-wise.
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TIP: DO IT AGAIN – At six years of age, it’s his first attempt at this race, whilst Rainbow Bridge returns to defend his title. Had runner up last year, Soqrat, not been sent to stud, I would have sided with him. Rainbow Bridge seems suited to 1800m-2000m, but has always seemed a shade short of his arch rival’s ability. Whilst Do It Again has not won since his 2019 Durban July double, his road to full fitness seems to have been perfectly timed. He stayed all the way with Rainbow Bridge in his penultimate run in the Gold Challenge, and was denied a Durban July hattrick by just a length. It looks like we may witness another Justin Snaith masterclass, as Do It Again goes all the way to claim yet another Grade 1 triumph. Either way it’s setup for another epic.
BET: Race 9
Race 10 - Gold Bracelet (Grade 2)
The draws in this 2000m Grade 2 for fillies and mares has not done the favoured runners any favour. Miyabi Gold is the standout in draw 6, whilst it’s rivals on the betting boards are sitting in double digits. Being the lucky last, I’m usually looking for a big price to back, and if the favourite doesn’t oblige, this race could be the right time for it.
Tip: KELPIE – This 4 year old has had some up and down form whilst matching up against the best in huge feature races. This experience plus the services of Anton Marcus cannot be overlooked at Greyville. With the field weighted quite evenly, bar Miyabi Gold, the forecasted value of around 16/1 is eye catching. The jockey booking could likely be a contracted one, which doesn’t mean it would necessarily be Anton’s choice ride. But he know the horse and the course, and going into the lucky last that counts for a lot. If Miyabi Gold fails to bounce back from a disappointing Durban July, then the race is there for the taking. A fun each way to end the day.
BET: Race 10
