2024 Durban July preview: Analysis Of Every Horse At Greyville

On Saturday, July 6, 2024, horse racing enthusiasts will have their sights fixed on Greyville Racecourse when the 128th Durban July takes place. A total of 18 horses will compete fiercely for the R5M prize money. Who will it be?

The most renowned horse racing event in South Africa will happen this Saturday. Race 7—the Durban July—is the main race and will jump at 16:00, while Race 1 will jump at 11:45. Here’s our complete guide to this year’s showdown, including the latest odds, weights, riders, the full draw, and betting tips.

After several years without a Kwa Zulu Natal-trained triumph, the recent Grade 1 events has seen a rise in the prominence of KZN trainers, and this is likely our best opportunity to see a KZN-trained horse win the July. The last KZN-trained horse to win the July was the Spanish Galliard, trained by Dennis Drier and ridden by Robbie Sham in 1992.

Last season, Michael Roberts came close with See It Again, finishing a close second. The home province holds a strong hand this time around, with last year’s runner-up and the Nathan Kotzen-trained Royal Victory, who drew pole position.

The three-year-olds have excelled in Africa’s prestigious horse racing event. The youngest age category has won five of the previous 14 renewals, and the favourite this year is the in-form 3-year-old Green With Envy.

In my opinion, this crop of three-year-olds has less of a chance than the one from last year. I am aware that Green With Envy is heavily fancied, but there were a lot of question marks following the Daily News 2000 triumph. However, I believe Purple Pitcher, who won the SA Classic and SA Derby and is jumping from gate 8 with 53kg on his back, has a strong each-way chance. At 20/1, I think that’s well worth a punt and one to be included in swingers, trifectas, and quartets.

Because this is a handicap, weights are very important. The best-weighted horse has a better chance than the best horse in the race. Only seven of the past 21 winners have carried more than 55kg to victory. Last year’s runner-up, who’s undoubtedly the best horse in this race, will carry the most weight at 60kg.

2024 Durban July top 5 Odds

Draws

As seen with Pamodoro’s 2012 victory from gate 20, history indicates that Durban July winners can emerge from anywhere. Out of the last four winners, gates 12, 18, and 17 produced three of them. Indeed, 11 out of the previous 16 winners have emerged from a double-figure stall. So don’t let the draw overcloud your judgement.

Tips

First – Royal Victory

The 4-year-old son of Pathfork is my selection for this year. The partnership of Royal Victory and Muzi Yeni has won both the last two Grade 1’s they’ve contested, winning both the Premier’s Champions Challenge and the Summer Cup at Turffontein. His last run at Greyville was over 1900m in October 2023, where he beat home Pirate Prince. At 14/1, I think the Nathan Kotzen-trained gelding will storm to victory jumping from pole position.

Second – Purple Pitcher

Winning the final two legs of the Triple Crown means Purple Pitcher has to be taken seriously in this year’s Durban July. For me, this is the dark horse and doesn’t deserve to be priced up at 20/1. The son of New Predator stays all day; there are no stamina doubts; he will definitely see out the 2200m trip, having won Grade 1’s over 1800m and 2450m. If they allow him to dictate the pace and settle into his run-on, like Wylie Hall did in 2014, we might be in for a surprise. Include him in all the exotics.

Third – See It Again

See It Again will be looking to go one better than when touched off by Winchester Mansion 12 months ago. The 4-year-old son of Twice Over was desperately unlucky in last year’s champions season, finishing second in both the July and Champions Cup. I think the 60kg will be the difference this year. The Michael Roberts-trained colt is undoubtedly the class of the pack and can win despite the top weight. Therefore, we should include him in everything.

Fourth – Winchester Mansion

The lightly raced 2023 winner, Winchester Mansion, finished a close second behind Royal Victory in the Champions Challenge Grade 1 at Turffontien. The son of Trippi will carry 56.5kg as he attempts to emulate Do It Again, who won back-to-back July’s in 2018 and 2019. That means his weight gap to See It Again of 3.5kg is the same as it was in the previous season.

Other possible dangers that can be included are Flag Man, Double Superlative and Oriental Charm.

BET Contributor

Tims is a CSA accreditated freelance cricket writer who also does cricket commentary for Guerilla Cricket SA and founder of the Full Quota Podcast.