Trends For Picking A Winner At The Masters

Like many events over the past month or so, The Masters offers punters the chance to learn from historic trends to find a potential winner.

Augusta National will be in full bloom this April – that’s not to say it wasn’t looking spectacular in November – when the worlds best descend on Georgia. And while the restrictions on patrons (yes, this is the week to ban the word “fans”) continue, the coverage from Dustin Johnson’s win gave viewers new angles in which to appreciate one of the world’s most famed courses.

The stories change. The challenge does not.

Returning in April. #themasters pic.twitter.com/wt59iRM0rB

— The Masters (@TheMasters) March 20, 2021

Those new television angles might have offered a fresh perspective on the golf course, there is nothing to suggest that the historic trends that have surfaced from those donning the green jacket will change in 2021.

So where do we start? By removing the past champions with little to no chance (think Mike Weir, Vijay Singh etc) and then discard all debutants … why? Only once has a debutant won the championship (Fuzzy Zoeller back in 1979) and it appears unlikely that it will happen again any time soon.

The next determining factor is players who hit the ball too short – Zach Johnson remains the exception as usually only big hitters or at least, those deemed not below average can exploit the course and turn the par 5s into eagle opportunities on a regular occasion.

It’s happened twice in the tournament’s history so it’s okay to assume that a third occasion will be safe to bet against. The factor? A player can’t win the Masters on Sunday if he’s never even played the event on the weekend before.

Watch the longest drives of the 2020 Masters.#themasters pic.twitter.com/evCg8pmmmA

— The Masters (@TheMasters) November 16, 2020

With the event two weeks away – the last two pieces in the puzzle of reducing the Masters field down to 20 or so true candidates – are still to be determined.

The first is to look at players this season who have struggled approaching the green from 175-225 yards out. The greens are lightning quick and missing on the wrong side of certain holes almost always leads to big scores. So in searching for the DNA of the potential green jacket wearer, look for players who have great GIR statistics this year.

The last key marker is to rule out players who miss the cut at next week’s Houston Open. It’s always difficult to win one of the biggest events on the calendar when you’ve been hacking it just a few days before.

Stay tuned for our pick of winners the week of the tournament on 8 April.