The Open Championship 2021 – Picking A Winner At Royal St George’s

The Open Championship will finally be played at Royal St George’s in a just over week, a year after it was postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic. What lies ahead is an opportunity for everyone and not just the favourites.

The last time Royal St George’s played host to the world’s best chasing the Claret Jug it was an emotional 42-year-old Darren Clarke who famously saw his name engraved onto the trophy.

Before Clarke, it was unheralded American Ben Curtis back in 2003. In his first Major appearance, the 300-1 outsider outlasted the field to claim a win that no one expected. Another famous name, although quite some time before Clarke and Curtis earned their victories, on the Claret Jug is that of Bobby Locke who prevailed at the famed venue in 1949.

All three were not favourites. All three were good players – Locke a world renowned putter – but not the best on display at the time. Yet it was the trio of Clarke, Curtis and Locke who managed to navigate their way around the course better than the other contenders. Herein lies a clue when trying to identify this year’s winner.

Another clue is offered by what many of the top players have said about the track. Many have hinted that it may not look terribly difficult but bad breaks abound especially from harsh bounces from the fairway towards the penal and well-placed bunkers.

To this point, only Greg Norman back in 1993 produced a winning score better than -5. That kind of scoring brings a certain kind of player into the mix – one that knows how to limit mistakes, hang around until late in the fourth round and churn out pars without calamitous mistakes.

When Clarke won in 2011, the top three players were half of the top six leaders in greens in regulation for the week. So big hitters may be bailed out if they can find the surface from the rough or bunkers and it may not be the flashiest player to win if historical trends are anything to go by.

Perhaps this year’s winner will be someone outside the world’s top 10, someone who has a good feeling around The Open venues, a player who knows how to limit mistakes and has a solid Major record.

Louis Oosthuizen certainly ticks the boxes. He is in form and currently leads the PGA TOUR’s putting statistics.

He is 25-1 to win his second Open championship.

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