Formula 1: Mexico City Grand Prix Betting Preview

Ferrari’s one-two victory in Austin last weekend upset the apple cart slightly as Lando Norris’ title challenge came somewhat unstuck.

The McLaren driver lost ground to leader Max Verstappen, who stretched his lead to 57 points. The Red Bull driver won Saturday’s Sprint race and finished third in the Grand Prix. However, there are 146 points still on the table.

It’s only a two-and-a-half-hour flight from Texas to Mexico City, but the air is much thinner. The capital city is 2240m above sea level and the high altitude makes for a challenging race.

The Track

The 4.3km Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez poses a daunting prospect for drivers and engineers.

The thinner air at the highest GP on the calendar means cooling the car becomes harder. However, the upside of air’s low density is that high speeds are achievable, topping 350km/h. Teams do this by running a lot of wings because not much downforce is required. 

It’s a tricky circuit to drive as the tyres and brakes struggle to reach an optimal temperature as quickly as the drivers prefer. Therefore, we’ll see a lot of sliding around and there’s a high chance of a safety car and virtual safety car here.

Let’s get into the nitty-gritty. The first sector features high-speed sections cut by a medium-speed right-left-right chicane according to Autoracing1. The first of two DRS zones is midway through Turn 9 and 10. The middle sector is entertaining with the esses providing some high-speed twisty action. Ending with the final sector it gets slow and twisty with fans in the Foro Sol stadium cheering their favourite driver on.

Verstappen Is Hoping Norris Will Crack

It was always going to be a tall order for Norris to reel the three-time world champion in. But last weekend’s poor performance at the US GP dented the McLaren driver’s title ambitions quite considerably.

Not only is Norris watching out for Verstappen, but Ferrari’s performance will keep McLaren up at night. The Italian team is 48 points behind McLaren in the constructors’ standings. Leclerc has won two of the last four races and the car is easier on its tyres than its rivals. All these factors bode well for another strong performance this weekend.

Verstappen struggled with the car’s balance on Sunday, and it’ll be hard for the Dutchman to battle for the win. Look out for RB’s Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunonda who have a strong chance of getting into the points.

Stat of the weekend: Sergio Perez is the only Mexican driver on the grid and is under immense pressure to put in a good performance. He has finished on the podium twice (third in 2021 and 2022).

Predictions

Grand Prix Winner: Leclerc

Grand Prix podium: Leclerc, Sainz, Norris

Top 4 and 5: Verstappen, Perez

Winning Margin: Under six seconds

Fastest lap: Sergio Perez

Pole position: Sainz

First to retire: Zhou Guanyu

First car to retire: Sauber

Most Team Points: Ferrari

Both Cars Qualify for Q3 Shootout: Red Bull

Practice 1/2/3 Winning Car: Leclerc/ Ferrari

Safety Car: Yes

Top 6: Lewis Hamilton, Oscar Piastri, Pierre Gasly

Top 10: Liam Lawson, Yuki Tsunoda

Fastest pit stop: Red Bull