Formula 1: Italian Grand Prix Betting Preview

Monza also known as the Temple of Speed awaits 20 Formula 1 drivers this weekend, as Italy hosts what should have been its second Grand Prix of 2023. The Emilia Romagna GP was called off earlier after devastating floods hit the region.

Max Verstappen heads to Monza on the back of nine straight victories and is the clear favourite. He kept out of trouble in the rain at Zandvoort to emerge ahead of Fernando Alonso and Pierre Gasly.

We’ve seen a different side to Max this season: composed and more calculated. The two-time champion said at the Belgian GP that he had adopted a more cautious approach to race starts. He aims to stay out of trouble and that has worked well so far this season.

The Track

Verstappen and Charles Leclerc are our favourites to grab pole position this weekend. It’s crucial for all drivers to emerge out of Variante (Turn 1) unscathed. Starting on the pole and having a clean start is vital to gaining an advantage on the opening lap.

Leclerc will be buoyed by the partisan crowd who love to watch Ferrari at the Temple of Speed. The Tifosi, Ferrari fans, could propel the Monegasque to deliver his second pole position in a row at the Italian GP. He’s set at 12/1 odds and could be a great outside bet.

With a maximum speed of around 350km/h expected from the 2023 cars, we predict strong weekends for Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, and Williams. All those teams have high top-end speeds and will take advantage of 84% of the lap driven flat out.

The 5.3km long circuit is a rapid track punctuated by chicanes and iconic turns such as Lesmo and Parabolica. The longest flat-out section is over 1.5km and we’re likely to see lots of overtaking under braking and down the straights.

The pit lane time loss is 19 seconds, and that could be crucial with the chance of light rain on Sunday. The strategists will be hard at work covering all possible scenarios in case the heavens open.

Max – The Unstoppable Force

Verstappen has shown his superiority this season, and the large gap between him and his teammate Sergio Perez is worrying. In the Netherlands last week, Perez’s fastest lap was slower than Verstappen’s slowest lap.

Track position is vital at Zandvoort as we’ve mentioned overtaking could be tricky, except for the Red Bull drivers whose cars are searingly quick everywhere.The Dutch driver is, therefore, the favourite at 1.22 for the win, with Perez at 12/1, Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris both at 15/1.

The British duo’s odds aren’t bad, but we see Ferrari using the might of their SF-75 to try and fight Max for the win. Leclerc finished behind Max in the race last year, and the Ferrari driver is at 31/1 to win in front of the home fans.

The Red Bull is such a fast car and has been incredibly reliable that we could see Verstappen winning by a margin of over 10 seconds (1.64). A winning margin of under five seconds is 3.5/1 and between five and 10 seconds is 4.3/1.

The nature of Monza means a low downforce setup is needed to make the car as slippery as possible. That helps generate a higher top speed. We’ve seen Williams’ FW-45 consistently perform well at high-speed circuits. Alex Albon has been in superb form for the team and he is knocking on the door of a top-six finish.

Albon’s teammate Logan Sargeant had a strong weekend in practice and qualifying at the Dutch GP, but two crashes over the weekend undone all his good work. We can see the American heading into either Q2 or Q3 qualifying on the back of a positive run at Zandvoort.

There are plenty of drivers who have things to prove this weekend. George Russell thought he was on course for a podium finish last weekend, but slumped to 17th position.

Fernando Alonso and Pierre Gasly both finished on the podium in Zandvoort and will need their Aston Martin and Alpine to do well at the fast circuit.

Let’s hope for a clean race this weekend, and hopefully, nothing like Verstappen and Hamilton’s crash at Variante in 2021 happens again.

Predictions

Winner – Verstappen
Podium – Verstappen, Leclerc, Sainz
Fastest lap: Hamilton
Pole position: Leclerc
First to retire: Zhou
Most Team Points: Ferrari
Both Cars Qualify for Q3 Shootout: Aston Martin
Practice 1/2/3 Winning Car: Leclerc/ Ferrari
Safety Car: No
Top 6: Albon, Piastri, Gasly
Top 10: Tsunoda, Hulkenberg, De Vries
Winning margin: Under 5 seconds
Number of classified finishers: 19

Sean Parker

Sean Parker is a motorsport journalist and sports content creator at The South African. He has worked for the country's premier motoring publications, and is a Formula 1 contributor to Bet.co.za, the Bet Central podcast, and Vision View Sports radio.