Formula 1: Italian Grand Prix Betting Preview

Lando Norris’ crushing victory over Max Verstappen at the Dutch Grand Prix has set off alarm bells at Red Bull.

McLaren scored their third win of the season and finished the weekend with 36 points. Zak Brown’s team reduced Red Bull’s lead to 30 points in the constructors’ standings, and subsequently, they were installed as favourites at 1.28 to win the title. Red Bull are second favourites at 3.50.

With nine races remaining, McLaren has the wind beneath their wings and the MCL38 looks strong at every type of circuit. The F1 season heads to Monza for the Italian GP with the top four teams eager to lay down the gauntlet.

The Track

Known as the ‘Temple of Speed’, Monza hosted its first GP in 1950 and has only missed one event since then.

Leclerc will be buoyed by the partisan crowd who love to watch Ferrari at the Temple of Speed. The Tifosi, Ferrari fans, could propel the Monegasque to deliver his second pole position in a row at the Italian GP. He’s set at 12/1 odds and could be a great outside bet.The 5.793km track comprises mostly long straights and 84% of the lap is completed at full throttle. The result is some of the highest speeds all season, with drivers reaching 350km/h.

Teams tend to opt for a skinny rear wing to maximise low downforce and eke out high-top speeds down the straights in the two DRS zones. Monza’s longest flat-out section is over 1.5km, and is great for overtaking and for spectators to see the full might of these cars.

The big track news is that the Autodromo has been resurfaced. The darker hue of the surface reportedly retains more heat and could affect tyre temperatures. The famous Rettifilo chicane has been widened to mitigate car bunching up and the high chance of crashes. The chicane is extremely narrow and forces drivers to tiptoe left to right without touching. For 2024 the chicane’s entry has been widened as well as the exit. The result is that there’s space for more than one car to get through side-by-side.

Ferrari Brings Upgrades To Monza, But McLaren Is Still Favourites

2019 was the last time Ferrari won their home race in front of the Tifosi and this weekend sees the team introduce much-needed upgrades. The Italian team found themselves in a mid-season slump. They secured two third-place finishes in the last two races and will hope the upgrades can propel them to challenge for a win. It’s worth looking at Charles Leclerc (2.85) or Carlos Sainz (3.75) reaching the podium this weekend.

Standing in Ferrari’s way is McLaren. The British team secured a dominant win in the Netherlands and team principal Andrea Stella is confident heading to Monza: “The team has built and delivered a car that is proving to be extremely competitive. We have everything in place to perform well, but we must ensure we remain grounded and consistently improve.”

The MCL38’s low downforce package is strong and Ferrari, Red Bull, and Mercedes are wary of the papaya-coloured team. Mercedes’ pace should return this weekend after the team struggled at the twisty Zandvoort track. George Russell and Lewis Hamilton were in great form before the summer break. The team hasn’t won here since 2018.

Red Bull is licking their wounds after suffering a crushing loss to Norris, but don’t discount the mettle shown by Max. The energy drink team will be looking to help their triple-world champion maintain his healthy 70-point lead in the championship.

Finally, look out for Merc junior driver Kimi Antonelli taking part in FP1 and Williams debutant Franco Carlapinto who replaced Logan Sargeant for the remainder of the season.

Predictions

Winner: Lando Norris
Podium: Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc, Carlos Sainz
Top 4 and 5: Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton
Winning Margin: Over six seconds
Fastest lap: Lando Norris
Pole position: Charles Leclerc
First to retire: Esteban Ocon
First car to retire: Alpine
Most Team Points: Ferrari
Both Cars Qualify for Q3 Shootout: Mercedes
Practice 1/2/3 Winning Car: Leclerc/ Ferrari
Safety Car: Yes
Top 6: Oscar Piastri, George Russell, Fernando Alonso
Top 10: Pierre Gasly, Lance Stroll, Yuki Tsunoda
Fastest pit stop: Red Bull