F1: Japanese Grand Prix Preview and Betting Tips

Sean Parker / @Sean_ParkerSA

Red Bull confirmed what the media reported a few days prior: Liam Lawson has been replaced by Racing Bulls’ Yuki Tsunoda after two races. The New Zealand driver qualified last at the Chinese GP and has struggled in the opening couple of races. Tsunoda, 24, will have his first competitive outing at his home GP and a track he knows well: Suzuka.

The Track

The first Japanese GP was hosted at Suzuka in 1987. The track has 18 turns and follows a unique figure-eight layout with famous fast sections like 130R and the essess. Most of the track is medium and high-speed corners, and the drivers will use full throttle for 66% of the lap, and the top speed is close to 330km/h.

The solitary DRS zone is located down the main straight. Perhaps the best part of Suzuka is it features a unique crossover section. Seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton holds the lap record of 1:30.983, which he set in 2019 in a Mercedes.

According to media reports new asphalt can be found from the exit of the last chicane to the end of the first sector. This circuit is tough on the tyres, and Pirelli for their hardest compound: the C1 and joined by the C2 and the C3.

Who do we think will do well?

As we head toward the third GP of 2025, McLaren is undoubtedly the team to beat, with two wins from as many races. And we expect the race winner to be either Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri, who have one win apiece. The latter finished almost 10 seconds ahead of his teammate in China, and Suzuka’s fast layout should suit the Papaya team.

The McLaren pair lead the way as favourites for the race win here, with four-time world champion Max Verstappen at 7.5/1 and Mercedes driver George Russell at 12/1. The Briton has finished on the podium in the opening two races. The Ferrari duo of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton showed glimpses of how rapid the SF-25 can be in China. Hamilton won the Sprint race, and Leclerc’s race pace was, at times, second fastest to the McLarens.

Lastly, it’s worth mentioning that Red Bull newcomer Tsunoda and Mercedes rookie Kimi Antonelli are at 6.5/1 and 15/1 to land on the podium. It remains to be seen how well Tsunoda can be dialed into the unruly RB21. 18-year-old Antonelli is one to watch after finishing fourth and sixth in his first two GPs and has shown a cool head under difficult race conditions.

What about the rookies?

Having a strong qualifying session is vital at Suzuka, and the track’s fast nature could catch a few of the rookies off guard. Ironically, Lawson knows the track well while competing in the Japanese Super Formula.

He’s one of the rookies that could perform well this weekend, particularly in the Racing Bull which has shown good pace so far this season. Other rookies to look out for includeIsack Hadjar, and Haas’ Oliver Bearman who finished an impressive eighth in China.

Predictions

Grand Prix Winner: Oscar Piastri
Grand Prix podium: Piastri, Norris, Leclerc
Top 4 and 5: Hamilton, Russell
Race Winning Margin: Between five and 10 seconds
Fastest lap: Norris
Pole position: Piastri
First to retire: Jack Doohan
First car to retire: Alpine
Most Team Points: McLaren
Both Cars Qualify for Q3 Shootout: Ferrari
Practice 1/2/3 Winning Car: Norris/ McLaren
Safety Car: Yes
Fastest pit stop: Ferrari