The Ashes 2023 Fifth Test: Prediction & Best Bets

The fate of the enthralling 2023 Ashes series will be decided in the ultimate showdown at The Oval. England and Australia will face off in the fifth Test, where the hosts will strive to secure their second consecutive Ashes draw on home soil, while Australia seeks to clinch their first away Ashes series victory since 2001. Here, we present the best bets along with our prediction for the final Test of this gripping series.

Mark Wood

The Australian batters have struggled against Wood’s pace in the last two Tests. Wood has been the difference for England after they last the first two Tests of the series. His brilliant player-of-the-match performance in the third Test kept England’s hopes of winning the series alive.

He took 7/100 in that game, including a five-for in the first innings. He’s had the better of Australia’s top order and he has the ability to clean up the tail, so I’m backing him to be England’s top first-innings bowler at 3.50.

Suggested Bet: Mark Wood to be England’s top 1st innings bowler at 3.50.

Steve Smith

Steve Smith hasn’t been at his best in the last two Tests, with Mark Wood getting the better of him twice in the previous Test. However, he has a phenomenal record at The Oval, scoring 546 runs in seven innings at 91.00.

I expect Smith to prove that class is permanent and score 50+ runs in the first innings. That is the safer bet considering that they’ll be overcast conditions for the majority of the Test.

Suggested Bet: Steve Smith to score 50+ runs in the 1st innings at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Steve Smith to score over 36.5 runs in the 1st innings at 1.86.

Prediction

The dominance displayed by England over Australia in the fourth Test cannot be overlooked. Although the rain deprived them of a well-deserved victory, the hosts are poised to unleash their full strength in the concluding Test of this captivating series, fueled by a sense of injustice.

On the other hand, Australia is motivated by the prospect of securing their first win in England in 22 years. However, it is evident that the exhaustive nature of the prolonged tour, both mentally and physically, has taken a toll on the team, especially their captain Cummins, who has participated in five consecutive Tests, including the WTC final.

Back England to win this Test and draw the series at 2-2.

Prediction: England to win at 2.30.

Stats

Chris Woakes to David Warner in this series: 2/13 from 33 balls.

Mark Wood to Steve Smith in this series: 2/14 from 20 balls (4/40 from 64 in the last two series).

Josh Tongue v David Warner in this series: 2/37.

Travis Head scored 163 and 18 against India in the WTC Final at The Oval, while Alex Carey scored 66* and 48.

Steve Smith has 546 runs from seven Oval innings at 91.00, whilst Warner has just 163 from his seven digs. Smith’s first Test century (138*) came at The Oval in 2013.

Mitch Marsh took 12 wickets from the 2015 and 2019 Oval Tests at 14.33.

Broad averages just 1.6 first innings wickets at The Oval.

Australia’s last two wins against England at The Oval have come by an innings.