India vs New Zealand First Test: Best Bets & Prediction

After a dominant 2-0 Test series win over Bangladesh, India is set for a three-match Test series against New Zealand, starting on Wednesday at the M. Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru. India, with a mix of experienced players and emerging talent, will look to continue their winning momentum, while the Black Caps will look to cause a major upset. Have a look at our best bets and prediction for the first Test of the series.

Venue: M. Chinnaswamy Stadium.

Betting Preview

India has been nearly unbeatable on home soil during this WTC cycle, winning six of seven matches, including dominant series victories over England (4-1) and Bangladesh (2-0). Their home dominance stretches back even further, with 14 wins from 19 home Tests since the start of 2021. With fast bowler Mohammed Shami still unavailable, India will likely field a similar squad to the one that outclassed Bangladesh. Notably, Jasprit Bumrah has been appointed vice-captain, a role that signals his potential to step in for Rohit Sharma if needed.

For New Zealand, this series presents a tough challenge. The Blackcaps, missing their star player Kane Williamson due to injury, will need to find inspiration from other players. Their recent performances against spin, particularly in Sri Lanka, have raised concerns, and their chances of pulling off an upset in India seem slim. They also face the challenge of replacing Michael Bracewell, who will head home after the first Test for family reasons.

Weather conditions for the first Test suggest rain and thunderstorms over the first few days, which could make the decision to bowl first tempting, despite the venue’s tradition of favoring teams batting first. Winning in Bengaluru is difficult, and New Zealand’s recent record in Asia only makes their task more difficult, having lost nine of their last ten completed Tests in the region. If they hope to compete, they’ll need to find better form against India’s strong spin attack and make the most of any conditions that might offer assistance.

friendly surface, New Zealand faces an Indian team that has been nearly unbeatable at home. Given both teams’ current form and squad strength, backing India at 2.60 would be our go-to choice.

Players to Watch: 38-year-old Ravichandran Ashwin shows no signs of slowing down in his twilight years, collecting the Player of the Series award against Bangladesh for 11 wickets as well as a match-changing hundred in Chennai. In spin-friendly Bengaluru, he has taken 29 wickets from his five Tests. 

Mumbai-born Ajaz Patel wrote himself into the record books in his last tour of India with all ten wickets in an innings in his birth city, including Ashwin for a golden duck. He picked up a six-wicket haul of his own in the first Test in Sri Lanka before a game to forget (0-135) in the second. His series bowling average of 35.62 was the second-worst of his career, so it’ll be fascinating to see if he can bounce back in India.

Prediction: India to win at 2.60.

Key Stats

New Zealand have won just two of their 36 Tests played away in India, with the remaining 34 split evenly (17-17) between draws and defeats.

India are unbeaten across eight consecutive Tests in Bengaluru (W5, D3) starting with a draw with Pakistan in 2007.

New Zealand are the only team to have played at least three Tests in Bengaluru with a 100% loss rate, having lost their matches in 2012, 1995 and 1988.

The average first innings score in Bengaluru Tests is 358.

Ravindra Jadeja took 18 wickets across his four Bengaluru Tests at an average of just 11.89. 

Jasprit Bumrah averages an unenviable 47 runs and 98 balls per Test wicket against New Zealand, last taking them on in the 2021 WTC final where he went wicketless from 36 overs.

Against New Zealand’s last Test bowling attack, Shubman Gill averages an outstanding 75.25 (301/4). His teammates’ averages include 39 (195/5) for Jadeja, 57 (285/5) for KL Rahul, 28 (540/19) for Rohit Sharma and just 18.33 (110/6) for Rishabh Pant.

Best Bets

Best Bet: A hundred to be scored in the 1st innings at 2.05.

Alternative Bet: Ravichandran Ashwin to be India’s top bowler at 2.90.