India vs New Zealand Third Test: Best Bets & Prediction

India host New Zealand on Friday at the Wankhede Stadium as they look to avoid a series whitewash and salvage some crucial World Test Championships points after the shock of going 2-0 down on home soil. Have a look at the best bets and prediction for this contest.

Venue: Wankhede Stadium.

Betting Preview

India captain Rohit Sharma described the first Test loss to New Zealand as a “collective failure,” which resonated with Indian fans expecting a smooth series victory at home. Now, with the series moving to Mumbai, India finds itself in a position where winning both remaining matches is critical to their World Test Championship hopes, especially with a challenging series in Australia ahead. Rohit’s struggles at the top, along with poor contributions from key batters like Rishabh Pant and Sarfaraz Khan, have only added to the pressure.

New Zealand, meanwhile, made an impactful change in Pune by bringing in Mitchell Santner, who delivered two five-wicket hauls and contributed crucial runs. His success has raised questions about the lineup, especially with Matt Henry potentially returning from injury. The team may need to rethink their balance between seam and spin, possibly at the expense of Ajaz Patel, who excelled in Asia with 12 wickets but at an average of 40, or Tim Southee, whose experience comes with limited recent success in the region.

With India’s path to the World Test Championship final now significantly tougher, New Zealand has simultaneously opened doors for South Africa, Sri Lanka, and Australia to stay competitive. New Zealand themselves still have a pathway to the final; a win here followed by a 3-0 sweep over England at home could give them a strong enough points percentage to potentially secure a top two finish. Anything less may see them reliant on the outcomes of other series.

India heads into the third Test as favourites, despite trailing 2-0 in the series. Rohit Sharma’s squad will look to capitalise on Mumbai’s spin-friendly conditions, which should benefit batters in the early days. The pitch is expected to suit India’s spin trio: Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, and Washington Sundar. Back India to win this game and salvage some pride at 1.34.

Players to Watch: Ravichandran Ashwin looked uncharacteristically off-colour in Bengaluru but showed some improvement in Pune, dismissing New Zealand’s top three in the first innings before Washington Sundar did the rest. Ashwin has a stunning 38 wickets from five games in Mumbai, racking up a total of 7+ in four of those matches. 

Daryl Mitchell was New Zealand’s top run scorer of the last Mumbai Test in 2021, but the last month or so could hardly have gone worse for him. After scoring exactly 18 runs in all three innings of this series, he now averages 19 on this tour of Sri Lanka and India and has now failed to top score in each of New Zealand’s last 19 Test innings. 

Prediction: India to win at 1.34.

Key Stats

The average first innings score in the Wankhede Tests is 339. 

The all-time batting average in the fourth innings of a Wankhede Test is just 19.78 (198 runs per ten wickets).

Washington Sundar dismissed Daryl Mitchell and Rachin Ravindra twice each in Pune for five and ten runs conceded respectively.

Jasprit Bumrah averages an unenviable 62.25 (4-249) with the ball against New Zealand’s last top seven.

Tom Blundell averages just 16 (96/6) against India’s second Test bowling attack and has not top-scored in any of New Zealand’s last 25 innings. 

Virat Kohli has not top-scored for India in any of their last 17 Test innings since the start of the home Test series against England. 

Will O’Rourke took a team-best 15 wickets from four Tests in New Zealand’s tour of Sri Lanka and India.  

Best Bets

Best Bet: Highest individual score to be under 144.5 at 1.90.

Alternative Bet: Ravi Ashwin to be India’s top 1st innings bowler at 2.85.