Bangladesh vs South Africa Second Test: Best Bets & Prediction

After a convincing victory in the first Test against Bangladesh, South Africa will be keen to secure a 2-0 series win, strengthening their chances of reaching the World Test Championship final. We look at the best bets and a prediction for the second Test which gets underway on Tuesday.

Venue: Zahur Ahmed Chowdhury Stadium.

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With Shakib Al Hasan stepping away from Test cricket, Bangladesh’s off-field turmoil continues as captain Najmul Hossain Shanto has reportedly requested to step down from leading the team in all formats. This decision has sparked an urgent meeting among board officials in Dhaka, as they weigh the choice to accept Shanto’s resignation and find a replacement ahead of the upcoming ODI series against Afghanistan. Shanto’s decision is motivated by his desire to refocus on his batting after a challenging run as captain, averaging just 19 in the last eight Tests.

In better news for Bangladesh, opener Mahmudul Hasan Joy’s recall offered some stability at the top order, and Mehidy Hasan Miraz, along with Jaker Ali, showed resilience in the second innings. However, former captain Mominul Haque struggled but will return to his favoured ground in Chattogram, where he has scored seven of his 13 Test centuries. South Africa, on the other hand, find themselves needing four wins from their remaining five WTC matches to keep their hopes alive for the 2025 final at Lord’s.

South Africa’s Aiden Markram continues as captain with Temba Bavuma still recovering from an elbow injury. Markram’s side ended a decade-long winless streak on Asian soil with their recent victory, breaking a 14-game drought. With their eye on a series win, South Africa is expected to retain their seam-spin combination, though Senuran Muthusamy could come in to replace Dane Piedt, who had an underwhelming outing with figures of 1-114.

Bangladesh were expected to challenge South Africa but fell short in the first Test. While their bowling can apply pressure, their batting relies too heavily on Mehidy Hasan Miraz. South Africa’s inexperienced batting has shown grit, and with Rabada and Maharaj leading a strong bowling lineup, we expect them to win this game at 1.83.

Players to Watch: Left-arm finger spinner Taijul Islam will likely one day overtake Shakib as the leading Test wicket-taker in Chattogram, but at an agonisingly slow rate based on current numbers. He averages fewer than four wickets per Test and one every 82 deliveries at the ZAC Stadium. 

Keshav Maharaj credited some advice from his BPL captain Tamim Iqbal for his successes in Mirpur, following which he has collected at least six wickets in four of his five Tests against Bangladesh.

Prediction: South Africa to win at 1.83.

Key Stats

Bangladesh won only one of their last 11 Tests in Chattogram since the start of 2015 (D3, L7).

The average first-inning score in Chattogram Tests is 380, which rises to 421 for the 42% of teams that won batting first. 

Kyle Verreynne’s 114 in the previous Test was just the fifth time from 30 Test innings that he scored 40+ runs.

The trio of Wiaan Mulder, Kagiso Rabada and Keshav Maharaj have dismissed Mominul Haque seven times in Tests at an average of 10.71.

Rabada now has head-to-head figures of 3-15 in Test cricket against Mushfiqur Rahim and 3-20 against Litton Das, and both batters average 21 against South Africa.

Mehidy Hasan Miraz has bowled 110 balls to Aiden Markram in all internationals without dismissing him (71 runs). 

Best Bets

Best Bet: A hundred to be scored in the first innings at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Keshav Maharaj to be South Africa’s top 1st innings bowler at 2.50.