Afghanistan vs South Africa First ODI: Best Bets & Prediction

Afghanistan square off against South Africa in the first ODI of their three-match series on Wednesday. The highly anticipated game will be held at the iconic Sharjah Cricket Stadium in the UAE. This will be the first these two sides meet in a bilateral ODI series. We’ve prepared the best bets for this encounter.

Venue: Sharjah Cricket Stadium

Betting Preview

Afghanistan suffered a setback with opener Ibrahim Zadran picking up an injury during training on a wet Greater Noida outfield, following the washed-out Test. Losing Ibrahim, the fifth-highest run-scorer in the 2024 T20 World Cup, could be a blow for Afghanistan, particularly given their historically poor record against South Africa. However, Afghanistan, nearly at full strength for this series, is seen by both pundits and betting markets as having a stronger chance than when the teams last met in the World Cup.

With just under a 60%-win rate in ODIs played in the UAE, Afghanistan will also be bolstered by the return of their T20 captain, Rashid Khan, after recovering from a minor injury. Paceman Fazalhaq Farooqi, who topped the 2024 T20 World Cup wicket charts with 17 wickets, will be a key figure for them.

South Africa, on the other hand, will be without key pacemen Kagiso Rabada, Marco Jansen, and Gerald Coetzee. Spin duo Keshav Maharaj and Tabraiz Shamsi, along with Anrich Nortje and David Miller are also unavailable due to Caribbean Premier League commitments. As a result, experienced leaders Temba Bavuma and Aiden Markram will carry much of the responsibility. With the bowlers who dismantled Afghanistan in the World Cup semi-final absent, newcomers like Nandre Burger, who impressed with a career-best 3/30 against India, and Tristan Stubbs, eager to make his mark, will need to step up.

Despite their World Cup success, South Africa were whitewashed 3-0 in their last ODI series against the West Indies and will be looking for a stronger showing. Afghanistan will fancy their chances against an inexperienced Proteas side. They have won 16 from 25 on this ground so they know it intimately. That knowledge could make all the difference, and it would be a major surprise if they didn’t bowl at least 30 overs of spin to suffocate South Africa. Back Afghanistan to cause an upset at 2.45.

Players to Watch: Afghanistan wicketkeeper Rahmanullah Gurbaz averages a whopping 70.40 in ODIs in the UAE and will be crucial for his team’s hopes in the absence of his regular opening partner Ibrahim. He was the leading run-scorer in the 2024 T20 World Cup. As one of the more experienced bowlers in the South African squad, paceman Lungi Ngidi will wish to seize the opportunity to improve on his figures of 2/69 in his lone ODI against Afghanistan. He has claimed 24 wickets in 14 ODIs in Asia, with his impressive economy rate of 5.94 there only a hint more expensive than his career economy of 5.74.

Prediction: Afghanistan to win at 2.45.

Key Stats

This will be the 250th ODI to be played at the Sharjah Cricket Stadium, which has hosted more ODIs than any other venue by far.

Keshav Maharaj and Lungi Ngidi took two wickets each in South Africa’s 2023 ODI World Cup win over Afghanistan in Ahmedabad.

Tony de Zorzi has passed 25 in all but one of his five ODI matches.

The average first innings score at this venue is 224.

Rahmat Shah has posted single digits in three of his last five ODI innings. 

Hashmatullah Shahidi has failed to pass double figures in four of his last six ODI innings.

Best Bets

Best Bet: Tristan Stubbs to be South Africa’s top batter at 6.00.

Alternative Bet: Highest individual score to be under 93.5 at 1.86.

BET Contributor