Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

By Carl Lewis

Borussia Dortmund have a dreadful record in recent seasons in the “Klassiker” with an injury cloud hanging over their best defender. Robert Lewandowski was rested last weekend with this game in mind. He loves these occasions and tends to reserve a few goals for his former club. Back leaders and record German champions Bayern to lay down a marker. This is how it works in the Bundesliga, for the past eight seasons anyway.

Borussia Dortmund Form

Borussia Dortmund have been in good form, winning to nil in their previous four matches and by a 2+ goal margin. Lucien Favre’s side sustained a 3-1 defeat at Lazio in the Champions League, three weeks ago a hard pill to swallow considering their statistical dominance after having 65% possession.

Borussia Dortmund returned home with a 3-0 win against Schalke and 2-0 win against Zenit. They won 2-0 at Arminia Bielefeld, defender Mats Hummels scoring both goals to make it three goals in three games. Dortmund’s last match was a 3-0 win at Club Brugge in the Champions League. Thorgan Hazard scored and Erling Haaland bagged a brace inside the opening 32 minutes.

Borussia Dormund Team News

Coach Lucien Favre will revert to his full-strength line up after a comfortable Champions League game in midweek. Mats Hummels missed the UCL match after scoring twice at the weekend and later hobbled off but is keen to face his former club. Jadon Sancho could start but fellow English talent Jude Bellingham might drop to the bench. Marcel Schmelzer and Dan-Axel Zagadou are still ruled out, but Thorgan Hazard is pushing for a start.

Borussia Dortmund Motivation

Borussia Dormtund have lost the last three Der Klassiker’s and will be determined to become a competitive force in this match once again. They are tied with Bayern Munich on points at the summit of the Bundesliga table. A win will move them above their rivals and be a massive psychological statement for them. Dortmund are on a four match winning streak and could not head into the match in better form.

Bayern Munich Form

Bayern Munich have won their last nine matches. They started the Champions League group stage with a 4-0 home win against Atletico Madrid. The Bavarians kept it going with a 5-0 home win against Eintracht Frankfurt, Robert Lewandowski hitting a hat-trick.

Hansi Flick’s side went on the road and secured 2-1 wins in St Petersburg and Koln. FC Bayern got back to winning big with a 6-2 victory at Salzburg on Tuesday. Bayern Munich fell behind early and were level in the 78th minute, but four late goals to Jérôme Boateng, Leroy Sané, Robert Lewandowski and Lucas Hernández put the result beyond doubt

Bayern Munich Team News

Robert Lewandowski was rested against Koln last weekend but will be fit and ready for Saturday. Alphonso Davies suffered an ankle injury and will not play again this year. Serge Gnabry is back from a COVID-19 false alarm, but Niklas Süle and Joshua Zirkzee have tested positive and are ruled out.

Midfielder Leon Goretzka is doubtful with a calf injury but Corentin Tolisso is available again after suspension, while Leroy Sane is pushing for a starting berth. Bayern have withdrawn their contract offer to David Alaba, and the Austrian stalwart could leave the club in the January transfer window – if the demanded fee is met.

Bayern Munich Motivation

Bayern Munich are the reigning European champions and seem to have a mental hold over their Bundesliga rivals of late. They will believe they’ll have too much firepower for Dortmund. They will also know the importance of a win here in the context of the Bundesliga.

Key Stats

Borussia Dortmund have won by 2+ goals in their last 4 matches (all competitions).

Borussia Dortmund have seen over 3.5 goals in 9 of their last 12 matches against Bayern Munich (Bundesliga).

Bayern Munich have won 7 of their last 9 matches against Borussia Dortmund (all competitions).

Bayern Munich have won their last 9 matches (all competitions).

Bayern Munich have seen over 3.5 goals in 7 of their last 10 matches (Bundesliga).

Bayern Munich have seen BTTS in their last 5 away matches (all competitions).

Prediction

It’s hard to see anything other than a Bayern Munich win in this one. Despite Borussia Dortmund’s strong form, their opposition are nowhere near the standard of Bayern and playing at home they will be without the famous ‘Yellow Wall’.

Best Bet: Bayern Munich win at 1.76

Value Bet: Bayern Munich (-1) at 2.65

Value Bet: Bayern Munich win and over 3.5 goals at 2.90

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