UCL Round of 16 Predictions and Betting Tips
By Carl Lewis
5 August 2020, by Carl Lewis
UCL Round of 16 Predictions and Betting Tips
The UEFA Champions League season was put on hold in March due to the COVID-19 outbreak, with four of the eight Round of 16 ties concluded. The competition is back on Friday with the final four legs of the Round of 16 matches.
These matches will be played at the hosts home venues before the rest of the competition is played out in Portugal next week. We preview each match over the weekend as we find out who will join Atalanta, PSG, RB Leipzig and Atletico Madrid in the quarter-final stage.
Friday 7 July
21:00 – Manchester City v Real Madrid
Manchester City – 1.68
Draw – 4.50
Real Madrid – 4.40
Manchester City have a 2-1 lead ahead of the second leg at the Etihad. The win in Madrid was part of a run of 22 matches involving City that saw a winner (W16, L6). The hosts have won 7 straight matches at home, 6 ‘to nil. They netted the opener by the 15th minute in the last 3 and can flaunt a whopping average of 3.86 goals scored per game across their previous 7 UEFA Champions League (UCL) home matches.
Benjamin Mendy is suspended for Manchester City, which will pave the way for Oleksandr Zinchenko to start at left-back, though Joao Cancelo is an option for Pep Guardiola. Sergio Aguero is sidelined with a knee issue, so Gabriel Jesus is in line to lead the attack.
La Liga champions Real Madrid are a more cohesive and settled team since their first-leg loss. They won 10 of their final 11 league matches en route to that title, netting the opener in every victory, just as they’ve done in 3 of the last 4 matches against City. Their recent away games have been tight though, and their last 6 competitive matches on the road that ended with a winner, finished via a 1-goal margin.
Sergio Ramos is suspended following his first-leg red card, which is a major blow for Los Blancos. Eder Militao should feature alongside Raphael Varane at the back to cover for Ramos. Marcelo will be assessed, with Ferland Mendy in line to deputise, while Mariano will play no part after testing positive for Coronavirus.
Best Bet: BTTS and over 2.5 goals at 1.76
Value Bet: Gabriel Jesus to score anytime at 2.70
Value Bet: Benzema to score anytime at 2.70
21:00 – Juventus vs Lyon
Juventus – 1.41
Draw – 4.70
Lyon – 7.50
Serie A champions Juventus must overturn a 1-0 first-leg deficit to reach the UCL quarter-final for a fourth time in a row. They have scored 2 or more goals in their last 12 home wins, 7 with a clean sheet. Goals are a thing Juve matches fixtures, with 7 of their last 9 UCL home games saw 3 goals exactly, and 4 featuring a 3-0 scoreline either way.
Douglas Costa and Mattia De Sciglio miss the match through injury, which could see Federico Bernardeschi handed a start on the right, though another option for Maurizio Sarri is to push Juan Cuadrado forward and have Danilo feature at right-back. Paulo Dybala is a doubt, but he is expected to be fit to feature is a major boost for the Old Lady. Matthijs de Ligt should continue in defence alongside Leonardo Bonucci.
Lyon’s loss on penalties against PSG in the League Cup meant as just 1 of their last 6 matches have now seen both teams score. Scoring first could be key in this fixture, as each of Lyon‘s last 12 UCL matches saw the winners score first.The visitors have won just 1 of their last six UCL away matches (D2, L3), although that win came this season.
Youssouf Kone misses the trip to Turin, while Kenny Tete and Marcelo will both be assessed. Lucas Tousart scored the crucial goal in the first leg, but has been sold to Hertha Berlin, so Houssem Aouar should start alongside Thiago Mendes. Memphis Depay missed the first leg through injury, and his availability is a huge boost for Lyon.
Best Bet: Juventus to win to zero at 2.15
Value Bet: Higuain to score last at 5.00
Saturday 8 August
21:00 – Barcelona v Napoli
Barcelona – 1.60
Draw – 4.20
Napoli – 5.50
Barcelona takes a 1-1 draw into the second leg at Camp Nou and have now seen 5 of their last 6 UCL matches feature both teams scoring and the opener netted by the 30th minute. Barcelona have scored just 1 goal in 4 of their last 6 home matches. However, they are unbeaten in their last 35 UCL home matches, winning despite a -1 handicap 80% of the time.
Napoli ended the Serie A season in 7th spot but they did lose just 2 of their last 9 league matches despite both teams scoring in 7. Scoring first could be crucial though, as 10 of Napoli’s last 11 matches that didn’t end in a draw saw the winner score first. The bad news for Napoli, they won just 1 of their final 5 away matches.
Best Bet: Barcelona to win at 1.60
Value Bet: Barcelona win and over 2.5 goals at 2.30
Value Bet: Lionel Messi to score last at 3.70
21:00 – Bayern Munich v Chelsea
Bayern Munich – 1.37
Draw – 5.50
Chelsea – 7.50
This match has a routine feel about it considering Bayern’s 3-0 aggregate lead. They are also unbeaten since December, Bayern’s first-leg win was their 6th UCL win via a margin of 2+ goals this season, including all 3 matches against English clubs. 6 of their 7 European games this season have now produced over 2.5 goals, whilst 20 of their 27 UCL goals this term came after HT. Scoring 2 or more goals per game while winning all 3 UCL home matches this season, Bayern have been prolific and are a daunting proposition at the Allianz. Furthermore, they’ve won their last seven fixtures here, with six producing over 2.5 goals.
Chelsea come into this match after a 2-1 loss to Arsenal in the FA Cup final that extended their run of competitive matches without a draw to 14 (W10, L4). Unbeaten in all 3 UCL matches on the road this season, 6 of their last 7 wins in Europe came by a 1-goal margin. However, it’s been 4 away matches since the Frank Lampard’s men last kept a clean sheet. Also, no team has ever recovered to win a UCL tie after losing a home first leg by 3 or more goals.
Value Bet: Bayern Munich to win and BTTS at 2.25
Value Bet: Lewandowski to score first at 2.80