21 July 2020, by Carl Lewis
Premier League Stat Pack – Gameweek 36
Friday 17 July
21:00 – West Ham v Watford
This is such a crucial ‘six-pointer’ in the fight for survival. A win for either side would probably secure their safety with 2 matches to play. West Ham relegated Norwich with a convincing 4-0 win last weekend, while Watford came from behind to beat Newcastle 2-1 – their second straight victory when it was needed.
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Finishing with matches against Manchester City and Arsenal, Watford knows their best chance of a win from their last three games is Friday’s encounter with West Ham. Unfortunately for Watford, they have lost their last 4 away matches and did not score.
A loss for West Ham wouldn’t be the end of the world but would leave them potentially needing a result against Aston Villa on the final day of the season, with a trip to Old Trafford in their penultimate game. West Ham have scored 7 goals in their last 2 matches against Watford, though lost 2-0 to the Hornets when they last hosted them.
Best Bet: Draw at 1.90
Saturday 18 July
18:30 – Norwich v Burnley
Norwich have lost their last 8 matches and have scored just once in that period. Burnley have lost just 1 of their last 14 matches but haven’t scored more than once in any of their last nine. Burnley are undefeated in their last 6 matches as well have been under 2.5 goals those games.
This will be the first time Norwich have hosted Burnley since 2012 when Jay Rodriguez scored for the away side in a 4-1 defeat. Expect a much closer, less action-packed affair on Saturday, with Burnley expected to sneak a narrow win at Carrow Road.
Best Bet: Burnley to win at 2.25
Monday 20 July
19:00 – Sheffield United v Everton
Expect a reaction from Sheffield United on Monday after manager Chris Wilder tore into his players in the wake of their 2-0 defeat at Leicester last time out. The Blades need to take maximum points from their last 2 matches to have a chance of qualifying for the Europa but they have won their last 4 home matches.
Everton were poor against Aston Villa and fortunate to come away from their home meeting with a point. They are 5 points off 10th with 2 matches to go and now unlikely to finish in the top half of the table. This season has been a bitterly disappointing one for Carlo Ancelotti’s side who have nothing to play for anymore.
Best Bet: Sheffield United to win at 2.10
19:00 – Brighton v Newcastle
Brighton need a point from their last 2 games to ensure Premier League status. After a tough run of games at home to Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City, all of which ended in defeat, Brighton should now return to winning ways at the Amex stadium.
Newcastle have lost 3 on the bounce but secured their top-flight status long ago. Newcastle have lost their last 3 matches and have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 4.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 2.00
21:45 – Wolves v Crystal Palace
Wolves are 6 points off fourth with 2 games left to play and a hugely inferior goal difference on the side’s above. It would take a remarkable turnaround for Nuno’s side to qualify for the Champions League next season from here. Wolves have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 6 home matches. There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 7 of Wolves’s last 8 matches.
Crystal Palace slipped to their sixth defeat in a row on Thursday night after losing 2-0 at home to Manchester United. They have failed to score in their last 3 away league matches and are expected to return to London empty-handed on Monday.
Best Bet: Wolves win and under 3.5 goals at 1.90
Tuesday 21 July
19:00 – Watford v Manchester City
After back-to-back wins, Watford fell to a crunch 3-1 loss at relegation rivals West Ham to leave them hovering perilously over the relegation zone. A welcome of Manchester City is not what they will have wanted.
City have just the Champions League left to play for, but Pep Guardiola will be looking for his players to bounce back from their 2-0 loss to Arsenal. Having won their last 12 meetings with Watford, including an 8-0 win in the reverse fixture, the Hornets are perhaps the ideal opponents for City.
Watford may be fighting for their Premier League survival, but a City side baying for blood should keep the Hornets grounded.
Best Bet: Man City to win to zero at 2.15
21:15 – Aston Villa v Arsenal
While Tottenham’s win over Leicester at the weekend was a positive for Villa, reducing Arsenal’s chances of a Europa League finish through the league, they will be somewhat fearful of a team that look stronger than at any point this season. Arsenal have won their last 7 matches against Aston Villa in all competitions.
That shouldn’t change Villa’s approach, however, knowing that a point could well be a strong result with Watford facing Manchester City earlier in the evening. Arsenal must win to keep their duel hopes of a European finish alive but will surely see a one-off game against Chelsea in the FA Cup final as the more realistic opportunity to qualify for the Europa League, so it will be interesting to see how Mikel Arteta handles his squad over the coming weeks.
Best Bet: Arsenal to win at 1.95
Wednesday 22 July
19:00 – Manchester United v West Ham
Manchester United’s FA Cup loss to Chelsea snapped a 19-match unbeaten run in all competitions. Still unbeaten in 12 league matches, they scored at least twice and led at HT in their last 6 matches while it’s 11 league fixtures since they failed to score. At home, the ‘Red Devils’ have score an average of 2.17 goals per league match this campaign and are unbeaten in 6 home matches.
West Ham United have hit form at the right time with 2 consecutive wins by 2+ goals. Unbeaten in 2 away matches (W1, D1), both games saw the ‘Hammers’ score at least twice, although this campaign they’ve scored an average of 1 goal per away match. West Ham also won the reverse fixture 2-0 earlier in the season.
Best Bet: BTTS and over 2.5 goals at 2.25
21:15 – Liverpool v Chelsea
A 2-1 loss to Arsenal made it 2 winless matches for champions and 3 in a row where both teams scored in an extended period of ‘hangover’ since the champions secured the title. Liverpool remains unbeaten at home this season with 13 of their wins seeing them lead at HT, and 11 producing a 2+ goal margin. However, the ‘Reds’ have won just 1 of the last 9 competitive head to heads at Anfield despite opening the scoring in the last 3.
Chelsea haven’t drawn in 11 competitive matches with 6 of those matches seeing just one side score, and 6 being decided by a 1-goal margin. Frank Lampard’s Chelsea have seen an average of 3.14 total goals per match. Chelsea won the reverse fixture 2-0 in the FA Cup earlier this year.
Best Bet: BTTS and over 2.5 goals at 1.90