3 July 2020, by Carl Lewis

Premier League Stat Pack – Gameweek 34

Tuesday 7 July

19:00 – Crystal Palace vs Chelsea

A 3-0 loss at Leicester saw Crystal Palace fall to their third consecutive loss and they have failed to score in their last 3 matches. However, the Palace are clear of danger and but not mathematically safe. There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Crystal Palace’s last 6 home games.

Chelsea bounced back from their 3-2 loss at West Ham with a routine 3-0 win over relegation-threatened Watford to reclaim fourth spot from Manchester United. The pressure is on Chelsea to get 3 points and they face that they have scored at least 2 goals in their last 7 matches will help their confidence.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1.95

19:00 – Watford vs Norwich

Watford have only picked up 1 point from their first 4 matches since the restart and are only above the relegation zone on goal difference. Watford have lost their last 3 matches (Premier League). Watford have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 matches against Norwich in all competitions and they also won the reverse fixture 2-0.

Norwich’s results have been even worse since the restart with 4 straight losses. They are 7 points from safety with 15 left to play for. More bad news, Norwich have failed to score in 8 of their last 9 matches and have lost their last 5 matches. Also, they have been losing at both half time and full time in 5 of their last 6 away matches.

Best Bet: Watford win and under 3.5 goals at 2.25

21:15 – Arsenal v Leicester City

Arsenal’s 2-0 victory over Wolves was their third consecutive win ‘to nil’. It’s now 8 matches since they drew a league game (W6, L2) and 4 since they failed to score. The ‘Gunners’ are unbeaten in 6 home games (W5, D1) having scored in their last 7 at home. 

Leicester City’s 3-0 win over Crystal Palace marked their first league win since the restart (D2, L1), with all 3 goals arriving after HT. However, they’ve not won an away match in 5 (D2, L3) and it’s been 3 away matches since their clean sheet. They did win the reverse fixture 2-0 earlier in the season.

Best Bet: BTTS at 1.95

Wednesday 8 July

19:00 – Manchester City v Newcastle

Manchester City suffered their ninth league defeat of the season after 1-0 loss to Southampton. However, 4 of their last 5 league games have featured over 2.5 goals, and their total goals average of 3.48 per match is a league-high. At home, Pep Guardiola’s men have been formidable this season (W12, D2, L2), scoring close to 3 goals on average per home match so far (2.81). Subsequently, 9 of their 12 wins covered a -1 handicap. 

Newcastle United are unbeaten since the restart (W2, D2) and have obtained their Premier League status. The Magpies have also been scoring goals of late – netting 2.5 goals on average from those 4 matches. That recent upturn in of goalscoring fortune has come during the second half (70%). 

Best Bet: BTTS and over 2.5 goals at 2.50

19:00 – Sheffield United v Wolves

Sheffield United are out of their restart slumber after rescuing a late point at Burnley on Sunda, this draw comes after their big win over Spurs. Unbeaten in 4 matches at home, winning 3 of them, the Blades will be confident of denting Wolves’ top four push which hit a stumbling block.

Wolves dropped points and lost ground in their hunt for a Champions League place after 2-0 home loss to Arsenal. That said, Wolves boast the third-best away record in the league and have won 4 of their last 5 on the road. There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Wolves’ last 5 games.

Sheffield United made light work of Spurs on home turf, but Wolves are a better side than Jose Mourinho’s Spurs. The reverse fixture finished 1-1. A repeat is possible.

Best Bet: Draw at 3.05

19:00 – West Ham v Burnley

David Moyes is breathing easier of late after West Ham picked up 4 points from their last 2 league matches to boost their Premier League survival effort. They head into this clash 4 points clear of the bottom three. Sadly, West Ham have conceded at least 2 goals in 9 of their last 11 matches.

Their opponents Burnley are not known for their free-scoring ways but they extend their unbeaten streak to 3 matches after a 1-1 draw against Sheffield United. There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Burnley’s last 6 games. Also, Burnley have beaten West Ham ‘to zero’ in their last 2 meetings.

Best Bet: West Ham win at 2.00

21:15 – Brighton vs Liverpool

Goals not been a friend of Brighton this season with an average of 1.06 goals per match is among the league’s worst. They’ve failed to score in 11 of their 33 matches this season. At home, Brighton have just 1 win from their last 6 matches (W1, D3, L2). Their 2 most recent home matches witnessed over 2.5 goals.

Liverpool are yet to win on the road since the restart and are weirdly without a goal in 5 straight away matches. While they have conceded an average of 2 goals per match on their travels. Regardless, Liverpool have won all 7 matches against Brighton since 2011, and are clear favourites here.

Best Bet: Liverpool win and over 2.5 goals at 2.30

Thursday 9 July

19:00 – Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur

A 5-match losing run leaves Bournemouth stuck in the relegation zone, but with those around them all struggling to put points on the board, they remain just 1 point off safety. The Cherries won this fixture last season, albeit late on after Spurs had been reduced to 9. There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 8 of Bournemouth’s last 10 games. Bournemouth will attempt to take advantage at the Vitality and Spurs have the means to eke out a close victory.Spurs have won 5 of their last 6 matches against Bournemouth in all competitions. They recovered from their 3-1 loss at Sheffield United with a hard-fought 1-0 win over Everton on Monday night. Spurs have won just 1 of their last 7 away league matches, but a trip to Bournemouth is as good a time as any to secure all 3 points.

Best Bet: Spurs to win at 1.71

19:00 – Everton v Southampton

Everton’s 2-match winning run came to an end on Monday night with a 1-0 loss at Spurs. Neither of these two sides have much left to play for in their remaining five games so a natural drop off can be expected at some point soon. Both would ideally like to secure a top-half finish, however. Everton are undefeated in their last 9 home matches, so that’s positive for Carlo Ancelotti.

Southampton will be brimming with confidence after beating last season’s champions, Manchester City, 1-0. There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Southampton’s last 4 away games so we could see some action at Goodison. Both teams have scored in each of the last 6 meetings and a score-draw could be on the cards.

Best Bet: BTTS and over 2.5 goals at 2.20

21:15 – Aston Villa v Manchester United

Aston Villa are winless in 4 home matches (D1, L3). All of the losses in that run produced a single-goal margin. In 2020, Villa have averaged exactly 3.0 ‘goals against’ across 4 home league defeats. Moreover, Villa’s Premier League home record against teams that finished inside the top six of 2018/19 is – L4 – GF 5, GA 13. 

Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 9 matches (W6, D3), while also winning the first half by a two-goal margin in each of their post-restart league victories. The visitors have taken full points (and averaged a winning margin of exactly 2 goals) from the last 5 away matches which saw them score first. 

Best Bet: Manchester United (-1) at 1.90

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