10 February 2020, by: 12th Man Analytics
South Africa v England: T20 Series Betting Preview
After some experimentation and rotation of players during the three-match One Day International Series, South Africa and England are likely to shift their attention to October’s T20 World Cup in Australia as they search for optimal combinations during this final leg of the England tour.
Three T20 Internationals will be played in East London, Durban and Pretoria respectively, and below follows a data-driven preview highlighting notable aspects relating to the venues, teams and individual players.
In order to project the potential nature of these surfaces, data has been sourced from the most recent South African domestic T20 competitions applicable to each venue. As far as run volume is concerned, Buffalo Park has produced an average first innings score of 162, compared to 168 at Kingsmead and 172 at SuperSport Park. Perhaps surprisingly Buffalo Park has produced the highest match totals on average (312), compared to the other two venues (306 in both cases).
Powerplay scoring at all three venues has proven to be relatively stable, with an average score of 48 during this phase applicable to both Buffalo Park and Kingsmead, compared to 45 for SuperSport Park. In terms of boundary hitting there is no major difference between the three venues as far as the rate of fours is concerned. The picture changes for sixes, however, as Buffalo Park’s small size is a significant factor in producing an average of 13 sixes per match. This is significantly more than both Kingsmead (9.4) and SuperSport Park (9). Hence one can expect the ball to fly over the Buffalo Park boundary rope during Wednesday’s first encounter in East London.
England’s (0.63) white ball pedigree is well established by this point and this extends into the T20 format where they boast an 80% win rate over their previous 10 T20 Internationals. Perhaps surprisingly this win rate is mirrored by South Africa (1.14) – partly the product of a large portion of these fixtures having been played before the present ‘turbulent phase’ which has enveloped the team after last year’s 50-Over World Cup.
Given the large number of changes that have occurred in the Proteas camp over recent months, the hosts are expected to face a significant uphill battle in matching England’s powerful line-up. The table above highlights this daunting task, particularly from a batting perspective where the visitors have averaged nearly 200 runs per first innings outing over their past ten encounters. This is partly fuelled by significant six-hitting prowess, with an average of 7.3 sixes hit by England per innings, compared to 5.7 for the hosts (Most sixes? England at 0.73).
The following tables contain individual player data accumulated over the course of each team’s previous 10 T20 Internationals.
The batting graph plots the average number of runs scored per innings by a player on the vertical axis and that player’s batting strike rate on the horizontal axis. Consequently, the most desirable location on the graph is the top right quadrant where both these metrics are at their highest.
Dawid Malan (2.25), Eoin Morgan (7.00) and Jonny Bairstow (3.50) have been the most successful England batsmen in recent times, while for South Africa the likes of Quinton de Kock (3.00), Reeza Hendricks (3.25), Rassie van der Dussen (3.25) have produced similar run volumes. In the current squad only David Miller (7.00) has produced at an elite strike rate comparable to the three aforementioned Englishmen.