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UFC 312: Du Plessis v Strickland 2 Predictions
UFC middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis seeks to silence Sean Strickland for good when they run it back in the main event of UFC 312 at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.
A second title will be on the line Down Under as Zhang Weili defends her strawweight championship against undefeated wrestling phenom Tatiana Suarez.
Plus, Justin Tafa takes on unbeaten newcomer Tallison Teixeira, and two of Australia’s finest, Jimmy Crute and Jake Matthews, get the pay-per-view spotlight as they square off against Rodolfo Bellato and Francisco Prado respectively.
MAIN CARD
When: Sunday, February 9, 5:00 AM SAST
Dricus du Plessis (1.45) v Sean Strickland (2.62) (Middleweight Championship)
South Africa’s first-ever UFC champion aims for a repeat while Strickland seeks redemption in their headlining sequel, which comes just over a year after their maiden meeting. This time, the roles are reversed, with Du Plessis entering as the 185-pound king and the outspoken American as the challenger.
Colliding in Vancouver, Canada last January, the pair went toe-to-toe and blow-for-blow for the full 25 minutes. Du Plessis did just enough to make history, dethroning Strickland by split decision, and added to his legacy by becoming the first man to submit former two-time champion Israel Adesanya in Perth in August.
Now, he’s returned to Australia on a back-to-the-future assignment. Strickland is a lot to deal with, not only inside the Octagon but outside of it as well. This was evident in the build-up to their first fight, with “Tarzan” sparking a war of words and an Octagon-side brawl.
“Stillknocks” seems to be over the drama, labelling Strickland “A fake tough guy.” Having dealt with the outlandish, controversial and unhinged Strickland once already, Du Plessis is focused on the task at hand – shutting up his rival and leaving no doubt as to who’s the better man as the American still believes he won their maiden meeting.
For a man who loves to proclaim he’ll “fight to the death”, Strickland is no killer inside the Octagon. That’s not a knock on the 33-year-old but rather speaks to his style of fighting. He’s a unique tactician, methodical rather than marauding.
This was never clearer than in his decision win over Paulo Costa at UFC 302 last June, which – while uneventful – was enough for him to consolidate his position as the number one contender. Yes, it was a boring fight, but to be fair to Strickland, he played the Brazilian like a fiddle.
Strickland, the only high-level mixed martial arts fighter to use the Philly Shell, prioritises defence over offence. His whole game is based on constant forward pressure, and he uses endless jabs and teep kicks to back up and cramp his counterpart.
Many, like Costa, and even all-time great Adesanya, are neutralised by this frustrating, unique style, and he even had periods of success against Du Plessis. However, the main reason why Du Plessis won the first fight is that he’s not one to take a backward step. He’s the one dictating terms, through overwhelming power, pure South African grit, unorthodox striking and strong grappling.
He’s a predator, the apex predator at 185 pounds. A tank of a man, he puts pressure on his foe with evil intentions. In contrast to Strickland, he’s a finisher extraordinaire with a 91% stoppage rate and plans on taking the judges out of the equation this time around.
Unbeaten inside the Octagon, his eight-fight win streak is the longest active purple patch at 185 pounds and his overall winning run stands at 10. Going into this rematch, all the cards are in Du Plessis’ favour. He’s the more well-rounded fighter, he has a ton of momentum, a power advantage and knows he has the gas tank to go five hard rounds.
Strickland isn’t going to bring anything new to the table. If anything, he’s going to load up even more on his two main techniques. Du Plessis, on the other hand, has gotten better since the first fight and can approach the sequel in a number of ways.
With his superior skill and will, bank on the baddest man in Mzanzi to get it done Down Under.
Prediction: Du Plessis by decision.
Best Bet: Du Plessis at 1.45.
Alternative Bets: Du Plessis by decision at 2.60.
Zhang Weili (1.95) v Tatiana Suarez (1.80) (Strawweight Championship)
The co-main event is a highly compelling clash for the strawweight championship.
In her second reign as 115-pound queen, Zhang (25-3) is a spitfire with a complete skillset and invaluable experience. Fast on the feet, her speed will be key for her in this match-up.
“Magnum”, who sits second on the women’s pound-for-pound list, is coming off a decision win over Yan Xiaonan in their historic all-Chinese title clash last April and is on a four-fight win streak.
If not for incredibly bad luck with injuries and having to overcome cancer, Suarez – who holds a perfect record of 10-0 – might have already been a UFC champion.
An alpha female with seemingly unstoppable wrestling, she returned from a three-and-a-half-year absence in style in February 2023, submitting Montana de la Rosa at flyweight, and followed it up by tapping out former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade to prove her championship potential.
Boasting a submission win over ex-flyweight champion Alexa Grasso as well, the former Olympic wrestling hopeful has all the tools to not only win gold but perhaps become a two-division ruler like the great Amanda Nunes if she’s able to kick the injury curse.
As good as Zhang is, Suarez is unlike any other strawweight in the world and her size, strength and skill should see her trap and submit Zhang to become the new champion.
Prediction: Suarez by submission.
Best Bet: Suarez at 1.80.
Alternative Bet: Suarez by submission at 4.00.
Justin Tafa (2.05) v Tallison Teixeira (1.72) (Heavyweight)
Don’t blink when these two heavyweights slug it out in the featured bout. With each man having a 100% finish rate, the judges should be mere spectators in this one.
Tafa (7-4) is not the type of fighter who’ll fight his way into the top 10 but he’s nevertheless a fun heavyweight to watch. “Bad Man” is a savage southpaw and is looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Karl Williams last March.
Teixeira makes his UFC debut with a flawless record of 7-0. A giant of a man at 6’7″, he’ll tower over Tafa and will have a massive nine-inch reach advantage.
Not only that, “Xicao” – who punched his ticket to the big time with a first-round win over Arthur Lopes on Dana White’s Contender Series – is a vastly superior athlete and six years younger than his New Zealand foe.
Add it all up and Teixeira looks set to burst onto the UFC scene in style.
Prediction: Teixeira by knockout.
Best Bet: Teixeira by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.37.
Alternative Bet: Teixeira at 1.72.
Jimmy Crute (2.25) v Rodolfo Bellato (1.60) (Light Heavyweight)
One of the loudest cheers of the event will be reserved for local favourite Crute (12-4-1) as he returns to the Octagon for the first time in 18 months.
After storming out of the UFC blocks and winning four of his first five fights, “The Brute” went off the boil and went without a victory in his next four whilst being finished thrice, prompting him to take time away from the sport.
A high-level grappler and still only 28, he has a lot of time to turn things around, but one gets the feeling that a lot is riding on the outcome of this fight.
A natural-born killer, Brazil’s Bellato (12-2) showed grit and power to overcome a nervous start and stop Ihor Potieria in his promotional debut towards the end of 2023.
He’s claimed all but one of his wins by finish (seven knockouts and four submissions) and is champing at the bit to make a run at the light heavyweight top 15, where Crute once found himself.
“Trator” seems to be tracking well and Crute is too much of an unknown in terms of which version of him will show up to back him. Unfortunately for him and the live crowd, Bellato looks set to play spoiler.
Prediction: Bellato by knockout.
Best Bet: Bellato by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.72.
Alternative Bet: Bellato at 1.60.
Jake Matthews (1.42) v Francisco Prado (2.80) (Welterweight)
Australia’s own Matthews (20-7) gets the main card underway against an adversary from Argentina.
It’ll surprise even many keen UFC fans to hear Matthews has been in the promotion for 11 years and has fought 20 times inside the Octagon.
Winner of 13 of those fights, you’d think he would’ve made some noise in the welterweight division by now, but instead, he’s been quietly toiling away outside of the top 15.
The 30-year-old, whose biggest victory was over Diego Sanchez in 2020, has traded wins and losses in his last six fights and is coming off a decision win over Phil Rowe last April.
At 22, Prado (12-2) is a work in progress but full of potential. Part of that process sees him move up to the 170-pound division following a 1-2 run at lightweight where losses to Jamie Mullarkey and Daniel Zellhuber bookended a knockout win over Ottman Azaitar.
Another fighter with a 100% finish rate (six knockouts and six submissions), Prado’s a predator and one to watch for the future. However, Matthews’ experience should see him prevail.
Prediction: Matthews by decision.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds at 1.57.
Alternative Bet: Matthews at 1.42.